2020 United States presidential election in Oregon

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout81.97% (of registered voters) Increase11.71 pp
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent Party -
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,340,383 958,448
Percentage 56.45% 40.37%
Oregon Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] President Donald Trump, and Vice President Mike Pence were renominated by the Republican Party. They faced a Democratic Party ticket of former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate, California U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, as vice president.

Biden won 56.45% of the vote to 40.37% for Trump. Biden received Oregon's seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] The state certified its election results on December 3.[3]

Biden won Oregon by 16.1%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% victory margin in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won Oregon since Ronald Reagan of neighboring California in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County--home to the state capital of Salem, and Deschutes County--anchored by rapidly-growing Bend. It was also the first time a majority of Deschutes County voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.[4]

Biden was the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency without carrying Columbia County and Tillamook County. He also became the first non-incumbent Democrat since Jimmy Carter to get elected without carrying Jackson County, and the first non-incumbent presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush to win without carrying Wasco County.[5] Tillamook and Columbia Counties were among a fraction of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. to vote twice for Barack Obama (2008, 2012) and twice for Donald Trump (2016, 2020).[6]

Biden also made history as the highest vote earner in Oregon history, with 1,340,383 votes.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Oregon came from white liberals, with white Oregonians favoring him by 57%–40%. 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[7]

Primary elections

The Oregon primary elections were held on Tuesday, May 19, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in Oregon, receiving the state's 28 delegates to the Republican National Convention[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Republican presidential primary § ORresults.[edit]
2020 Oregon Republican presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Donald Trump 363,785 93.70 28
Write-ins 24,461 6.30 0
Total 388,246 100.00 28

Democratic primary

Though all Democrats but Joe Biden had withdrawn from the national race by the Oregon primary, four remained on the ballot. Biden won just under two-thirds of the vote. Bernie Sanders received just over 20% of the vote. Oregon's 71 delegates were allocated with 46 to Biden and 15 to Sanders.[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary § ORresults.[edit]
2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 408,315 65.99 46
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 127,345 20.58 15
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 59,355 9.59
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 10,717 1.73
Write-in votes 12,979 2.10
Total 618,711 100% 61

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[13]

Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 1,661 46.7
Donald Trump 1,389 39.1
Bernie Sanders 1,227 34.5
Total 4,277 100.00
Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 392 55.13
Donald Trump 280 39.38

Pacific Green Party primary

Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[14] Solid D
Inside Elections[15] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe D
Politico[17] Likely D
RCP[18] Lean D
Niskanen[19] Safe D
CNN[20] Solid D
The Economist[21] Safe D
CBS News[22] Likely D
270towin[23] Safe D
ABC News[24] Solid D
NPR[25] Likely D
NBC News[26] Likely D
538[27] Solid D

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 20, 2020 58.0% 38.5% 3.5% Biden +19.5
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.7% 37.4% 3.9% Biden +21.3
Average 58.4% 38.0% 3.7% Biden +20.4

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Pacific Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,543 (LV) ± 2.5% 39%[c] 59% – – – –
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.3% 37% 60% 1% 1% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 5,422 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,109 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Sep 26–29, 2020 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% – – 3%[d] 2%
DHM Research Sep 3–8, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51% – – 6%[e] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,648 (LV) – 38% 60% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,890 (LV) – 38% 61% – – – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 872 (LV) – 39% 59% – – – 2%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Oregon[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,340,383 56.45% +6.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		958,448 40.37% +1.28%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		41,582 1.75% -2.96%
Pacific Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		11,831 0.50% -2.00%
Progressive Dario Hunter
Dawn Neptune Adams 		4,988 0.21% N/A
Write-in 17,089 0.72% -2.91%
Total votes 2,374,321

Results by county

County Joe Biden
Democratic		 Donald Trump
Republican		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other votes Margin Total
votes
% # % # % # % # % #
Baker 23.62% 2,346 74.02% 7,352 1.45% 144 0.90% 90 -50.40% -5,006 9,932
Benton 67.86% 35,827 28.18% 14,878 2.16% 1,142 1.80% 952 39.68% 20,949 52,799
Clackamas 53.96% 139,043 42.89% 110,509 1.84% 4,736 1.32% 3,391 11.07% 28,534 257,679
Clatsop 54.02% 12,916 42.74% 10,218 1.83% 437 1.41% 339 11.28% 2,698 23,910
Columbia 42.94% 13,835 53.23% 17,150 2.44% 787 1.39% 449 -10.29% -3,315 32,221
Coos 38.42% 14,243 58.88% 21,829 1.54% 572 1.16% 431 -20.46% -7,586 37,075
Crook 24.61% 3,801 73.06% 11,287 1.50% 231 0.83% 129 -48.45% -7,486 15,448
Curry 40.59% 6,058 56.84% 8,484 1.53% 228 1.04% 155 -16.25% -2,426 14,925
Deschutes 52.67% 65,962 44.43% 55,646 1.67% 2,097 1.23% 1,529 8.24% 10,316 125,234
Douglas 29.78% 19,160 67.29% 43,298 1.84% 1,182 1.11% 709 -37.51% -24,138 64,349
Gilliam 27.50% 324 70.80% 834 1.44% 17 0.25% 3 -43.30% -510 1,178
Grant 20.21% 929 77.13% 3,545 1.68% 77 0.98% 45 -56.92% -2,616 4,596
Harney 19.95% 894 77.55% 3,475 1.41% 63 1.09% 49 -57.60% -2,581 4,481
Hood River 66.95% 8,764 30.21% 3,955 1.52% 199 1.31% 172 36.74% 4,809 13,090
Jackson 46.77% 59,478 50.23% 63,869 1.70% 2,168 1.30% 1,650 -3.46% -4,391 127,165
Jefferson 36.88% 4,393 60.35% 7,189 1.76% 210 1.02% 121 -23.47% -2,796 11,913
Josephine 35.73% 18,451 61.48% 31,751 1.54% 795 1.24% 644 -25.75% -13,300 51,641
Klamath 28.29% 10,388 68.91% 25,308 1.73% 637 1.07% 393 -40.62% -14,920 36,726
Lake 18.15% 792 79.53% 3,470 1.44% 63 0.87% 38 -61.38% -2,678 4,363
Lane 60.46% 134,366 36.15% 80,336 1.76% 3,906 1.65% 3,645 24.31% 54,030 222,253
Lincoln 56.58% 17,385 40.55% 12,460 1.50% 462 1.37% 419 16.03% 4,925 30,726
Linn 36.50% 26,512 59.87% 43,486 2.19% 1,594 1.44% 1,048 -23.37% -16,974 72,640
Malheur 27.62% 3,260 69.36% 8,187 1.87% 221 1.15% 136 -41.74% -4,927 11,804
Marion 48.86% 80,872 47.73% 79,002 1.98% 3,272 1.44% 2,388 1.13% 1,870 165,534
Morrow 26.79% 1,371 70.07% 3,586 2.46% 126 0.68% 35 -43.28% -2,215 5,118
Multnomah 79.21% 367,249 17.90% 82,995 1.23% 5,726 1.66% 7,689 61.31% 284,254 463,659
Polk 47.46% 22,917 49.14% 23,732 2.03% 981 1.37% 661 -1.68% -815 48,291
Sherman 21.52% 260 76.24% 921 1.99% 24 0.25% 3 -54.72% -661 1,208
Tillamook 47.76% 8,066 49.47% 8,354 1.55% 261 1.23% 207 -1.71% -288 16,888
Umatilla 32.41% 10,707 64.38% 21,270 2.24% 740 0.97% 321 -31.97% -10,563 33,038
Union 28.47% 4,254 68.91% 10,298 1.61% 241 1.02% 151 -40.44% -6,044 14,944
Wallowa 31.56% 1,625 66.11% 3,404 1.48% 76 0.85% 44 -34.55% -1,779 5,149
Wasco 46.74% 6,604 49.79% 7,035 2.09% 296 1.38% 195 -3.05% -431 14,130
Washington 65.54% 209,940 30.93% 99,073 2.00% 6,398 1.54% 4,915 34.61% 110,867 320,326
Wheeler 22.49% 217 73.68% 711 2.59% 25 1.25% 12 -51.19% -494 965
Yamhill 46.12% 27,174 50.15% 29,551 2.46% 1,448 1.27% 750 -4.03% -2,377 58,923

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 34.1% 63.3% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 55.6% 42.1% Cliff Bentz
3rd 23.5% 74.3% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46.7% 50.7% Peter DeFazio
5th 43.9% 53.6% Kurt Schrader

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 6%

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  4. ^ Warner, Gary (November 20, 2020). "Deschutes joins Oregon's blue hue in presidential voting, and other voting stats". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2021.
  5. ^ Bureau, GARY A. WARNER Oregon Capital. "A turbulent first week of 2022 election year". Oregon Capital Insider. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  6. ^ Bureau, GARY A. WARNER Oregon Capital. "A turbulent first week of 2022 election year". Oregon Capital Insider. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  7. ^ "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". Associated Press. KPTV. May 19, 2020.
  9. ^ "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  11. ^ "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  12. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  20. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  21. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  24. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  26. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  28. ^ "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

External links

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