2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

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2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout73.88%[1] Increase
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 261,043 150,471
Percentage 61.77% 35.61%

South Dakota Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump carried South Dakota by 61.8%–35.6%, or a margin of 26.2%. Biden performed four points better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. This was Libertarian Jo Jorgensen’s best state, with 2.63% of the vote.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 29 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Democratic primary

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Libertarian nominee

Prior to the South Dakota primaries, the 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[5] Solid R
Inside Elections[6] Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Safe R
Politico[8] Solid R
RCP[9] Solid R
Niskanen[10] Safe R
CNN[11] Solid R
The Economist[12] Safe R
CBS News[13] Likely R
270towin[14] Safe R
ABC News[15] Solid R
NPR[16] Likely R
NBC News[17] Solid R
538[18] Solid R

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win October 17–25 , 2020 November 3, 2020 42.0% 52.5% 5.5% Trump +10.5
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 39.0% 54.5% 6.5% Trump +15.4
Average 40.5% 53.5% 6.0% Trump +13.0

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 606 (LV) ± 5.5% 63%[c] 36%
Nielson Brothers Polling Oct 24–28, 2020 484 (LV) ± 4.45% 55% 40% 3% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,098 (LV) 57% 41%
Mason-Dixon Oct 19–21, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 40% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 354 (LV) 58% 41% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 277 (LV) 59% 38% 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 396 (LV) 62% 35% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 160 (LV) 61% 37% 2%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[19]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Kristi Noem[d]
Larry Rhoden
Jason Ravnsborg
Joseph M. Yracheta
Nicole A. Gronli
Randy Seiler
Devin Saxon
Tracey Quint
N/A

Results

2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
261,043 61.77% +0.24%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
150,471 35.61% +3.87%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
11,095 2.63% -3.00%
Total votes 422,609 100.00%

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Total
votes
% # % # % #
Aurora 74.88% 1,052 22.56% 317 2.56% 36 1,405
Beadle 67.90% 4,808 29.76% 2,107 2.34% 166 7,081
Bennett 58.66% 694 39.39% 466 1.94% 23 1,183
Bon Homme 74.48% 2,235 24.03% 721 1.50% 45 3,001
Brookings 54.92% 8,000 41.94% 6,110 3.14% 457 14,567
Brown 60.30% 10,580 37.26% 6,538 2.44% 429 17,547
Brule 70.28% 1,750 27.03% 673 2.69% 67 2,490
Buffalo 33.33% 183 64.12% 352 2.55% 14 549
Butte 77.70% 3,731 19.55% 939 2.75% 132 4,802
Campbell 85.57% 747 13.40% 117 1.03% 9 873
Charles Mix 67.46% 2,552 31.11% 1,177 1.43% 54 3,783
Clark 74.22% 1,373 23.62% 437 2.16% 40 1,850
Clay 43.10% 2,456 54.11% 3,083 2.79% 159 5,698
Codington 68.06% 8,958 29.15% 3,837 2.78% 366 13,161
Corson 50.43% 647 48.48% 622 1.09% 14 1,283
Custer 70.11% 3,852 27.70% 1,522 2.18% 120 5,494
Davison 66.39% 5,613 31.32% 2,648 2.28% 193 8,454
Day 63.06% 1,869 35.49% 1,052 1.45% 43 2,964
Deuel 72.30% 1,699 25.91% 609 1.79% 42 2,350
Dewey 40.18% 790 57.53% 1,131 2.29% 45 1,966
Douglas 86.00% 1,468 12.65% 216 1.35% 23 1,707
Edmunds 77.48% 1,538 21.01% 417 1.51% 30 1,985
Fall River 71.20% 2,878 26.05% 1,053 2.75% 111 4,042
Faulk 81.56% 964 16.75% 198 1.69% 20 1,182
Grant 69.91% 2,618 28.20% 1,056 1.90% 71 3,745
Gregory 78.43% 1,771 20.15% 455 1.42% 32 2,258
Haakon 90.24% 1,026 9.23% 105 0.53% 6 1,137
Hamlin 76.94% 2,372 20.99% 647 2.08% 64 3,083
Hand 78.05% 1,433 20.32% 373 1.63% 30 1,836
Hanson 75.08% 1,793 23.32% 557 1.59% 38 2,388
Harding 92.00% 748 6.03% 49 1.97% 16 813
Hughes 63.30% 5,522 33.85% 2,953 2.84% 248 8,723
Hutchinson 78.15% 2,944 20.23% 762 1.62% 61 3,767
Hyde 79.44% 564 19.15% 136 1.41% 10 710
Jackson 66.19% 738 32.20% 359 1.61% 18 1,115
Jerauld 71.67% 721 26.84% 270 1.49% 15 1,006
Jones 83.14% 498 15.03% 90 1.84% 11 599
Kingsbury 68.51% 1,904 29.47% 819 2.02% 56 2,779
Lake 62.68% 3,681 35.21% 2,068 2.11% 124 5,873
Lawrence 63.30% 8,753 32.81% 4,537 3.89% 538 13,828
Lincoln 60.55% 19,617 36.98% 11,981 2.46% 798 32,396
Lyman 65.25% 1,042 32.87% 525 1.88% 30 1,597
Marshall 59.09% 1,287 39.39% 858 1.52% 33 2,178
McCook 71.31% 2,068 26.52% 769 2.17% 63 2,900
McPherson 81.19% 1,075 16.77% 222 2.04% 27 1,324
Meade 72.24% 9,875 24.03% 3,285 3.73% 510 13,670
Mellette 58.39% 449 38.75% 298 2.86% 22 769
Miner 69.16% 787 28.12% 320 2.72% 31 1,138
Minnehaha 53.34% 49,249 43.85% 40,482 2.81% 2,595 92,326
Moody 60.85% 1,951 36.77% 1,179 2.37% 76 3,206
Oglala Lakota 9.28% 297 88.41% 2,829 2.31% 74 3,200
Pennington 60.96% 35,063 35.83% 20,606 3.21% 1,849 57,518
Perkins 83.94% 1,401 14.32% 239 1.74% 29 1,669
Potter 82.54% 1,139 16.45% 227 1.01% 14 1,380
Roberts 55.82% 2,404 42.44% 1,828 1.74% 75 4,307
Sanborn 76.37% 905 21.69% 257 1.94% 23 1,185
Spink 66.52% 2,104 31.55% 998 1.93% 61 3,163
Stanley 72.82% 1,203 25.48% 421 1.69% 28 1,652
Sully 78.06% 726 19.89% 185 2.04% 19 930
Todd 20.95% 532 77.31% 1,963 1.73% 44 2,539
Tripp 80.16% 2,161 18.36% 495 1.48% 40 2,696
Turner 72.34% 3,290 25.04% 1,139 2.62% 119 4,548
Union 67.13% 5,944 30.77% 2,725 2.10% 186 8,855
Walworth 76.20% 1,966 21.90% 565 1.90% 49 2,580
Yankton 60.38% 6,581 36.84% 4,016 2.78% 303 10,900
Ziebach 44.59% 404 53.09% 481 2.32% 21 906
Total 61.77% 261,043 35.61% 150,471 2.63% 11,095 422,609

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

South Dakota, a majority-White, mainly-rural state in the Midwestern Plains, is normally a Republican stronghold at both the state and presidential levels, despite being more populated than—and voting to the left of—neighboring North Dakota. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. It has only been competitive (within 5 points of a Democratic victory) in three elections since then: 1976, 1992, and 1996, all elections the Democratic nominee won. Even South Dakota Senator George McGovern failed to carry his home state as Democratic nominee in the 1972 presidential election.

Despite Trump's win in the state, Biden flipped majority-Native American Ziebach County back to Democratic after it flipped red in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump held the majority-Native American counties of Bennett, Mellette and Jackson, and grew his support in Corson County, particularly in white-majority precincts while Biden held on to Native American support in other majority-minority precincts in the state. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump won 63% of White Americans, a group composing 94% of the electorate.[22] A sparsely populated state with a rural and conservative lifestyle, South Dakota has an agrarian populist streak[23] to which Trump made direct appeals. He campaigned personally in the state, using Mount Rushmore as a backdrop to cast himself as waging battle against a "new far-left fascism".[24]

While Biden did not win Minnehaha County, home to the state's largest city, Sioux Falls, that Barack Obama carried by less than one percent in 2008, he reduced Trump's 2016 14.6-percent winning margin in the county to 9.4 points, although Trump received a higher percentage of votes in the county than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ After her election, Noem was replaced by Dan Lederman.[20]

References

  1. ^ "Voter turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "South Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  6. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  7. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  9. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  10. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  11. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  12. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  15. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  17. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  19. ^ "Certificate of Ascertainment of Election" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  20. ^ Zionts, Arielle (January 19, 2021). "Noem meeting with Trump on Monday instead of voting for him in Electoral College". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved July 25, 2021.
  21. ^ "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). sdsos.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  22. ^ "South Dakota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  23. ^ Cohen, Micah (August 24, 2012). "In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  24. ^ "Remarks by President Trump at South Dakota's 2020 Mount Rushmore Fireworks Celebration | Keystone, South Dakota". The White House. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

External links