2020 United States presidential election in Vermont

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Vermont
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout73.27%[1] Increase
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 242,820 112,704
Percentage 66.09% 30.67%
Vermont Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results
Vermont Presidential Election Results 2020 by Municipality.svg
Municipality results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Vermont
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Vermont was won by Biden with 66.1% of the vote, making this his best performance in any state (not including Washington, D.C. which is not a state). Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Vermont as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. With a victory margin of 35.4% over Trump, the Green Mountain State gave Biden his widest margin of victory as well as highest vote percentage of any state, making 2020 the first-ever presidential election in which Vermont was the most Democratic state in the nation. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4]

Vermont weighed in for this election as 32% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary § VTresults.[edit]
2020 Vermont Republican primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[6]
Donald Trump 33,984 86.49 17
Bill Weld 3,971 10.11 0
Rocky De La Fuente 341 0.87 0
Write-ins 480 1.22 0
Overvotes 37 0.09 0
Blank votes 478 1.22 0
Total 39,291 100% 17

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[7][8] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[9][10]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary § VTresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Bernie Sanders 79,921 50.57 11
Joe Biden 34,669 21.94 5
Elizabeth Warren 19,785 12.52
Michael Bloomberg 14,828 9.38
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 3,709 2.35
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 1,991 1.26
Tulsi Gabbard 1,303 0.82
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 591 0.37
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 202 0.13
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] 137 0.09
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 135 0.09
Donald Trump (write-in Republican) 83 0.05
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 52 0.03
Hillary Clinton (write-in) 5 0.00
Michael Bennet (write-in) 3 0.00
Other candidates / Write-in [c]238 0.15
Overvotes / Blank votes [d]380 0.24
Total 158,032 100% 16

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[14] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[16] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[17] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[18] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[19] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[20] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[21] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[22] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[23] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[24] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[25] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[26] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[e] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 66.5% 27.8% 5.7% Biden +38.7


Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 906 (LV) ± 4.5% 26%[g] 71% - - – –
co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[A] Oct 19–29, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.05% 32% 62% - - – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,167 (LV) – 29% 69% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 427 (LV) – 34% 64% - - – 2%
Braun Research/VPR Sep 3–15, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4% 32% 56% - - 8%[h] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 236 (LV) – 29% 70% - - – 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 368 (LV) – 27% 71% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 113 (LV) – 20% 75% - - – 5%

Results

Burlington
Biden:      70–80%      80–90%
South Burlington
Biden:      60–70%      70–80%
Rutland
Biden:      40–50%      50–60%
Barre
Biden:      50–60%
Montpelier
Biden:      70–80%
2020 United States presidential election in Vermont[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		242,820 66.09% +10.37%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		112,704 30.67% +0.91%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		3,608 0.98% -2.16%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		1,310 0.36% -1.75%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		1,269 0.35% N/A
Grumpy Old Patriots H. Brooke Paige
Thomas Witman 		1,175 0.32% N/A
Independent Christopher LaFontaine
Michael Speed 		856 0.23% N/A
Independent Richard Duncan
Mitch Bupp 		213 0.06% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel 		209 0.06% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		208 0.06% +0.04%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett 		195 0.05% N/A
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		166 0.05% -0.05%
Boiling Frog Gary Swing
David Olszta 		141 0.04% N/A
Prohibition Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker 		137 0.04% N/A
Bull Moose Keith McCormic
Sam Blasiak 		126 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		100 0.03% N/A
Bread and Roses Jerome Segal
John De Graaf 		65 0.02% N/A
Approval Voting Blake Huber
Frank Atwood 		54 0.01% N/A
Independent Kyle Kopitke
Taja Ivanow 		53 0.01% N/A
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		48 0.01% N/A
Independent Zachary Scalf
Matthew Lyda 		29 0.01% N/A
Write-in 1,942 0.53%
Total votes 367,428 100.00%

Results by county

[27]

County Joe Biden Votes Donald Trump Votes Third parties / Others Votes Jo Jorgensen Votes Howie Hawkins Votes Others Votes Total
Democratic Republican Libertarian Green
Addison 67.4% 14,967 28.3% 6,292 4.3% 953 1.1% 243 0.3% 69 2.9% 641 22,212
Bennington 61.5% 12,705 34.5% 7,114 2.7% 549 0.97% 200 0.35% 72 1.3% 277 20,640
Caledonia 55.2% 9,011 40.1% 6,551 4.7% 772 1% 167 0.4% 66 3.3% 539 16,334
Chittenden 75.1% 74,961 21% 21,017 3.9% 3,881 0.9% 882 0.4% 372 2.6% 2,627 99,859
Essex 42.4% 1,405 53.5% 1,773 4.2% 139 1.2% 40 0.2% 7 2.8% 92 3,317
Franklin 52.2% 13,611 43.2% 11,274 4.6% 1,199 1.3% 335 0.2% 59 3% 805 26,084
Grand Isle 59.1% 2,905 36.8% 1,810 4.1% 197 0.7% 35 0.2% 12 3.1% 150 4,912
Lamoille 67.9% 10,240 27.6% 4,163 4.6% 689 1.1% 168 0.3% 44 3.2% 477 15,092
Orange 59.5% 10,304 35.7% 6,187 4.8% 836 0.9% 162 0.3% 57 3.6% 617 17,327
Orleans 50.3% 7,147 45.8% 6,512 3.9% 556 0.9% 133 0.2% 35 2.7% 388 14,215
Rutland 53.2% 18,230 42.3% 14,672 4.1% 1,390 0.9% 339 0.2% 84 2.8% 967 34,292
Washington 70.6% 25,191 25% 8,928 4.4% 1,576 0.9% 334 0.5% 166 3% 1,076 35,695
Windham 71.4% 18,767 24.5% 6,440 4.7% 1,071 0.9% 230 0.5% 139 2.7% 702 26,278
Windsor 67.3% 23,376 28.7% 9,971 3.9% 1,364 1% 340 0.4% 128 2.6% 896 34,711

[27]

Analysis

Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[28] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history. Trump carried only one county, the sparsely-populated Essex County bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016; Biden thus became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying this county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Vermont had once been one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in the Green Mountain State has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal professionals from Massachusetts and New York, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right[29]. After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their 242–255 electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

In Chittenden County, home to the state's largest city of Burlington, Biden received 75.1% of the vote, which is the first time in the state's history that a Democrat has broken 75% in any of the state's counties.[citation needed] Biden's performance in Chittenden County is also the first time since 1960 that any candidate has received over 75% in a Vermont county.

Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[30]

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Including "Blank" (written in) with 8 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards and two others with 2 votes; and 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
  4. ^ 57 overvotes and 323 blank votes
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election

See also

References

  1. ^ "Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  5. ^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  6. ^ "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  7. ^ "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
  8. ^ Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.
  9. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.
  11. ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  12. ^ "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  19. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  23. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  25. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  27. ^ a b c "General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  28. ^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  29. ^ Moskowitz, Seth. "The Road to 270: Vermont - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  30. ^ "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.

External links

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