2020 United States presidential election in Missouri

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Missouri
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.75% Increase 3.19 pp
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,718,736 1,253,014
Percentage 56.80% 41.41%
Missouri Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Missouri
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U.S. House of Representatives
State government
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Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
State Auditor elections
State Treasurer elections
Secretary of State elections
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Missouri House elections
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Mayoral elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won Missouri again by a 15.4% margin. This was 3.1% lower than his 2016 margin, but still a better performance in the state than that of any other Republican nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump would win.

This is only the second time that Missouri has voted more Republican than neighboring Kansas, the first time being in 1916. Biden became the second Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying Missouri, the first being Barack Obama, whom Biden served under as vice president.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 Missouri Democratic presidential primary


2020 Missouri Democratic presidential primary[3]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 400,347 60.10 44
Bernie Sanders 230,374 34.59 24
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 9,866 1.48
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 8,156 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 4,887 0.73
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 3,309 0.50
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 2,682 0.40
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 953 0.14
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 651 0.10
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 584 0.09
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 206 0.03
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 170 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) 159 0.02
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 103 0.02
Henry Hewes 94 0.01
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 52 0.01
Other candidates 1,025 0.15
Uncommitted 2,494 0.37
Total 666,112 100% 68

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary


2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary[4]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 301,600 96.8% 54
Uncommitted 4,176 1.4%
Bill Weld 2,148 0.7%
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 2,002 0.6%
Bob Ely 847 0.3%
Matthew John Matern 607 0.2%
Total 311,793 100% 54

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Missouri Libertarian presidential primary
← 2016 March 10, 2020 2024 →
← NC
OH →
  Jacob Hornberger by Gage Skidmore (cropped) (3).jpg
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Uncommitted
Home state Virginia N/A
Popular vote 1,683 573
Percentage 74.6% 25.4%
Missouri Libertarian presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Election results by county
  Jacob Hornberger
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 10, 2020[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 1,683 74.6%
Uncommitted 573 25.4%
Total 2,256 100%

Green primary

Main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
2020 Missouri Green presidential primaries[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Howie Hawkins 2,733 76.93%
Green Dario Hunter 639 26.87%
Green David Rolde 214 10.99%
Total votes 3,586 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[8] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[10] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[11] Lean R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[13] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[14] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[15] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[16] Likely R August 2, 2020
ABC News[17] Lean R July 31, 2020
NPR[18] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[19] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[20] Likely R September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 13 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.7% 51.3% 5.0% Trump +7.6
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.6% 51.6% 4.8% Trump +8.0
Average 43.7% 51.5% 4.9% Trump +7.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,926 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[c] 44% - - – –
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 487 (LV) ± 6.6% 55% 43% 2% 0% – –
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 1,109 (LV) ± 3% 52% 43% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 28–29, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 50% 45% 2% 1% – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 4,759 (LV) – 53% 45% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 14–15, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 51% 45% 1% 1% - 2%
YouGov/SLU Sep 24 – Oct 7, 2020 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 43% - - 3% 2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Missouri[A] Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 48% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 980 (LV) ± 3% 51% 46% - - – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,157 (LV) – 53% 45% - - – 2%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Sep 16–17, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3% 53% 45% - - – 2%
We Ask America Sep 1–3, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 49% 44% - - 5%[d] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,863 (LV) – 54% 44% - - – 2%
Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 26–28, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 52% 41% 3% - 1%[e] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,261 (LV) – 54% 44% - - – 2%
YouGov/Saint Louis University Jun 23 – Jul 1, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.95% 50% 43% - - 4% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 868 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri Scout[A] Jun 16–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Jun 10–11, 2020 1,152 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 43% - - – 6%
We Ask America May 26–27, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 48% 44% - - 3%[f] 5%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 53% 42% - - – 5%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[B] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 50% 43% - - – 7%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 42% - - – 5%
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 43% - - – 6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 52% 37% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 36% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 38% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 52% 37% 11%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 53% 35% 12%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[B] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 51% 41% 8%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout March 6–7, 2019 984(LV) ± 3.3% 53% 46% 2%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Missouri[21][22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,718,736 56.80 +0.02
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,253,014 41.41 +3.27
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		41,205 1.36 -2.11
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		8,283 0.27 -0.63
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,919 0.13 -0.34
Write-in 805 0.03 n/a
Total votes 3,025,962 100.00

By county

Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Other Margin Total
County % # % # % # % # #
Adair 35.89% 3,710 60.45% 6,413 2.06% 213 25.62% 2,703 10,336
Andrew 23.75% 2,351 73.30% 7,255 1.48% 146 49.55% 4,904 9,898
Atchison 19.69% 564 76.75% 2,199 1.78% 51 57.07% 1,635 2,865
Audrain 24.86% 2,704 71.09% 7,732 2.02% 220 46.23% 5,028 10,876
Barry 18.63% 2,948 78.52% 12,425 1.42% 225 59.89% 9,477 15,823
Barton 13.74% 844 84.14% 5,168 1.06% 65 70.40% 4,324 6,142
Bates 19.53% 1,672 77.04% 6,597 1.72% 147 57.51% 4,925 8,563
Benton 20.44% 2,180 76.05% 8,109 1.75% 187 55.60% 5,929 10,663
Bollinger 12.40% 750 85.42% 5,167 1.09% 66 73.02% 4,417 6,049
Boone 53.47% 50,064 41.28% 38,646 2.63% 2,458 -12.20% -11,418 93,626
Buchanan 36.04% 13,445 60.19% 22,450 1.88% 703 24.14% 9,005 37,301
Butler 17.96% 3,301 79.45% 14,602 1.29% 238 61.49% 11,301 18,379
Caldwell 18.92% 897 78.55% 3,725 1.27% 60 59.64% 2,828 4,742
Callaway 27.17% 5,870 68.58% 14,815 2.12% 459 41.41% 8,945 21,603
Camden 22.50% 5,652 75.03% 18,850 1.23% 310 52.54% 13,198 25,122
Cape Girardeau 26.25% 10,760 70.52% 28,907 1.61% 661 44.27% 18,147 40,989
Carroll 17.19% 786 81.06% 3,706 0.87% 40 63.87% 2,920 4,572
Carter 14.29% 418 83.79% 2,451 0.96% 28 69.50% 2,033 2,925
Cass 32.53% 19,052 63.51% 37,197 1.98% 1,159 30.98% 18,145 58,567
Cedar 16.00% 1,145 80.89% 5,788 1.55% 111 64.89% 4,643 7,155
Chariton 22.20% 916 75.38% 3,111 1.21% 50 53.19% 2,195 4,127
Christian 23.37% 11,131 73.32% 34,920 1.65% 788 49.95% 23,789 47,627
Clark 19.72% 678 77.72% 2,672 1.28% 44 58.00% 1,994 3,438
Clay 46.00% 59,400 50.03% 64,605 1.99% 2,564 4.03% 5,205 129,133
Clinton 26.13% 2,896 70.38% 7,799 1.74% 193 44.25% 4,903 11,081
Cole 31.52% 12,694 64.76% 26,086 1.86% 749 33.25% 13,392 40,278
Cooper 25.37% 2,249 70.75% 6,272 1.94% 172 45.38% 4,023 8,865
Crawford 19.02% 2,113 78.55% 8,725 1.22% 135 59.52% 6,612 11,108
Dade 15.74% 656 81.91% 3,414 1.18% 49 66.17% 2,758 4,168
Dallas 16.81% 1,380 80.63% 6,619 1.28% 105 63.82% 5,239 8,209
Daviess 18.77% 746 78.06% 3,102 1.59% 63 59.29% 2,356 3,974
DeKalb 18.87% 930 77.68% 3,828 1.72% 85 58.81% 2,898 4,928
Dent 14.58% 1,056 82.68% 5,987 1.37% 99 68.10% 4,931 7,241
Douglas 14.34% 1,016 83.23% 5,898 1.21% 86 68.90% 4,882 7,086
Dunklin 20.95% 2,200 77.45% 8,135 0.80% 84 56.51% 5,935 10,503
Franklin 26.61% 14,569 69.52% 38,058 1.93% 1,058 42.91% 23,489 54,743
Gasconade 19.96% 1,601 77.55% 6,222 1.25% 100 57.60% 4,621 8,023
Gentry 18.69% 613 78.69% 2,581 1.31% 43 60.00% 1,968 3,280
Greene 38.00% 55,068 57.71% 83,630 2.14% 3,102 19.71% 28,562 144,902
Grundy 17.80% 799 79.84% 3,585 1.18% 53 62.05% 2,786 4,490
Harrison 15.48% 597 82.91% 3,198 0.80% 31 67.44% 2,601 3,857
Henry 23.96% 2,619 73.44% 8,027 1.30% 142 49.48% 5,408 10,930
Hickory 20.55% 1,056 77.19% 3,966 1.13% 58 56.64% 2,910 5,138
Holt 14.25% 338 83.31% 1,976 1.22% 29 69.06% 1,638 2,372
Howard 27.08% 1,413 68.09% 3,553 2.41% 126 41.01% 2,140 5,218
Howell 17.03% 3,218 80.32% 15,181 1.33% 251 63.29% 11,963 18,901
Iron 20.35% 945 77.45% 3,596 1.10% 51 57.10% 2,651 4,643
Jackson 60.00% 199,842 37.24% 126,535 1.97% 6,686 -22.76% -73,307 333,063
Jasper 25.36% 13,549 70.62% 37,728 2.01% 1,075 45.26% 24,179 53,427
Jefferson 31.58% 37,523 64.85% 77,046 1.78% 2,119 33.27% 39,523 118,807
Johnson 29.32% 6,974 65.13% 15,489 2.78% 660 35.80% 8,515 23,783
Knox 18.07% 340 78.96% 1,486 1.49% 28 60.89% 1,146 1,882
Laclede 16.31% 2,780 80.74% 13,762 1.47% 251 64.43% 10,982 17,044
Lafayette 25.75% 4,472 70.68% 12,273 1.79% 310 44.92% 7,801 17,365
Lawrence 17.69% 3,214 79.39% 14,426 1.46% 265 61.71% 11,212 18,170
Lewis 21.02% 984 75.90% 3,553 1.54% 72 54.88% 2,569 4,681
Lincoln 22.34% 6,607 73.86% 21,848 1.90% 563 51.52% 15,241 29,581
Linn 21.93% 1,275 75.04% 4,363 1.51% 88 53.11% 3,088 5,814
Livingston 20.62% 1,410 77.01% 5,267 1.18% 81 56.40% 3,857 6,839
Macon 20.95% 1,662 76.58% 6,076 1.24% 98 55.63% 4,414 7,934
Madison 17.72% 1,019 79.74% 4,584 1.27% 73 62.01% 3,565 5,749
Maries 16.83% 814 80.48% 3,892 1.34% 65 63.65% 3,078 4,836
Marion 23.58% 3,202 73.02% 9,915 1.70% 231 49.44% 6,713 13,579
McDonald 15.64% 1,439 81.12% 7,465 1.62% 149 65.49% 6,026 9,202
Mercer 12.37% 222 85.85% 1,541 0.89% 16 73.48% 1,319 1,795
Miller 16.24% 2,038 81.08% 10,176 1.34% 168 64.84% 8,138 12,550
Mississippi 24.56% 1,178 73.73% 3,537 0.85% 41 49.18% 2,359 4,797
Moniteau 18.01% 1,308 79.10% 5,744 1.45% 105 61.09% 4,436 7,262
Monroe 20.56% 936 76.37% 3,477 1.54% 70 55.81% 2,541 4,553
Montgomery 20.58% 1,208 76.05% 4,465 1.69% 99 55.48% 3,257 5,871
Morgan 20.02% 1,924 77.46% 7,442 1.26% 121 57.43% 5,518 9,608
New Madrid 23.93% 1,748 74.57% 5,447 0.75% 55 50.64% 3,699 7,305
Newton 20.15% 5,818 76.61% 22,120 1.62% 467 56.46% 16,302 28,872
Nodaway 28.34% 2,853 68.19% 6,865 1.74% 175 39.85% 4,012 10,068
Oregon 17.12% 823 80.01% 3,847 1.44% 69 62.90% 3,024 4,808
Osage 13.62% 1,037 84.36% 6,425 1.01% 77 70.75% 5,388 7,616
Ozark 15.31% 752 82.74% 4,064 0.98% 48 67.43% 3,312 4,912
Pemiscot 26.94% 1,560 71.16% 4,120 0.95% 55 44.21% 2,560 5,790
Perry 17.38% 1,664 79.99% 7,657 1.32% 126 62.60% 5,993 9,573
Pettis 24.46% 4,783 70.84% 13,854 2.35% 460 46.38% 9,071 19,557
Phelps 28.16% 5,637 67.34% 13,480 2.25% 451 39.18% 7,843 20,019
Pike 21.98% 1,717 75.07% 5,863 1.47% 115 53.09% 4,146 7,810
Platte 46.50% 27,179 49.48% 28,917 2.01% 1,174 2.97% 1,738 58,444
Polk 18.74% 2,885 76.98% 11,850 2.14% 329 58.24% 8,965 15,393
Pulaski 25.34% 3,740 69.98% 10,329 2.34% 345 44.64% 6,589 14,759
Putnam 15.19% 361 83.47% 1,984 0.67% 16 68.28% 1,623 2,377
Ralls 21.06% 1,205 76.81% 4,396 1.07% 61 55.76% 3,191 5,723
Randolph 22.62% 2,485 72.99% 8,018 2.19% 241 50.37% 5,533 10,985
Ray 26.25% 3,109 70.46% 8,345 1.65% 195 44.21% 5,236 11,844
Reynolds 15.87% 529 81.97% 2,733 1.08% 36 66.11% 2,204 3,334
Ripley 14.46% 833 83.98% 4,839 0.78% 45 69.52% 4,006 5,762
Saline 29.99% 2,904 66.62% 6,451 1.69% 164 36.63% 3,547 9,683
Schuyler 18.40% 373 79.23% 1,606 1.18% 24 60.83% 1,233 2,027
Scotland 19.21% 388 77.23% 1,560 1.78% 36 58.02% 1,172 2,020
Scott 20.95% 3,753 76.85% 13,769 1.10% 197 55.91% 10,016 17,916
Shannon 17.91% 706 80.31% 3,165 0.89% 35 62.40% 2,459 3,941
Shelby 17.37% 592 79.23% 2,700 1.70% 58 61.85% 2,108 3,408
St. Charles 39.59% 89,530 56.78% 128,389 1.81% 4,098 17.19% 38,859 226,115
St. Clair 19.65% 988 78.20% 3,932 1.07% 54 58.55% 2,944 5,028
St. Francois 24.76% 7,044 72.10% 20,511 1.57% 446 47.34% 13,467 28,447
St. Louis 60.18% 328,151 36.59% 199,493 1.61% 8,802 -23.60% -128,658 545,248
St. Louis City 80.85% 110,089 15.77% 21,474 1.69% 2,304 -65.08% -88,615 136,171
Ste. Genevieve 28.19% 2,713 68.88% 6,630 1.46% 141 40.70% 3,917 9,625
Stoddard 13.43% 1,819 84.76% 11,484 0.91% 123 71.33% 9,665 13,549
Stone 18.79% 3,506 79.31% 14,800 0.95% 177 60.53% 11,294 18,660
Sullivan 19.20% 478 79.28% 1,974 0.76% 19 60.08% 1,496 2,490
Taney 19.97% 5,339 76.73% 20,508 1.65% 441 56.75% 15,169 26,729
Texas 15.01% 1,716 82.88% 9,478 1.06% 121 67.87% 7,762 11,436
Vernon 20.44% 1,903 76.84% 7,155 1.36% 127 56.40% 5,252 9,312
Warren 25.42% 4,769 70.48% 13,222 2.05% 384 45.06% 8,453 18,759
Washington 17.86% 1,804 79.67% 8,047 1.24% 125 61.81% 6,243 10,101
Wayne 14.26% 845 84.18% 4,987 0.78% 46 69.92% 4,142 5,924
Webster 18.70% 3,573 77.89% 14,880 1.71% 326 59.18% 11,307 19,105
Worth 19.16% 215 78.16% 877 1.34% 15 59.00% 662 1,122
Wright 13.19% 1,168 84.15% 7,453 1.33% 118 70.96% 6,285 8,857

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[23]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 18.1% 80.3% Lacy Clay (116th Congress)
Cori Bush (117th Congress)
2nd 49.18% 49.16% Ann Wagner
3rd 66.9% 31.3% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66% 31.9% Vicky Hartzler
5th 39.6% 58.4% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 63.3% 35% Sam Graves
7th 70% 28.1% Billy Long
8th 77.3% 21.4% Jason Smith

Analysis

A bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century, Missouri has since come to vote reliably Republican in presidential elections. This has been attributed to a shift in Republican policy towards right-wing populism and social conservatism; the platform has found fertile ground in the state, which lies in the Bible Belt, with Trump carrying 86% of White, born-again/Evangelical Christians.[24]

Biden won the same four jurisdictions that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did in 2012 and 2016, respectively: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to the college town of Columbia; and St. Louis County, home to the suburbs of St. Louis, which he also won. Biden also improved Democratic margins in Platte and Clay counties, both suburbs of Kansas City; Platte was carried by Trump by only 3%, and Clay by 4%. In addition, the 61% of the vote that Biden won in St. Louis County was the best performance for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide.[citation needed]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Missouri came from voters who trusted him on economic policy: a 57% majority believed Trump was better able to handle international trade. With a hybrid industrial-service-agricultural economy, 63% of Missourian voters favored increasing taxes on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries, and these voters broke for Trump by 67%. As is the case in many Southern and border states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: White Missourians supported Trump by 62%, while black Missourians supported Biden by 88%. Trump became the first Republican to win Missouri by double digits twice.[24]

In other elections, incumbent Republican Mike Parson easily defeated State Auditor Nicole Galloway by 16 points—outperforming Trump—in the governor's race, further testifying to the state's trend towards the GOP, and becoming the best performance for a Republican on the gubernatorial level since John Ashcroft's 1988 victory.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  5. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Galloway's campaign for governor
  2. ^ a b Uniting Missouri is a PAC supporting Governor Mike Parson (R) in the 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election.

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "State of Missouri - Presidential Primary Election, March 10, 2020" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
  4. ^ "Missouri Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  5. ^ "Joe Biden, Donald Trump win Missouri Presidential Preferential Primary". KMBC. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  6. ^ "Candidate List — March 2020 Presidential Preference Primary". Retrieved December 18, 2019.
  7. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  11. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  13. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  14. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  17. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  19. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  21. ^ "Official List of Candidates" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  22. ^ General Election, November 03, 2020, Official Results, Missouri Secretary of State, December 8, 2020.
  23. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  24. ^ a b "Missouri Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.

Further reading

External links

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