2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
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| Elections in Vermont |
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The 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Vermont. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott is seeking a fourth 2-year term against Democrat Brenda Siegel.[1][2]
This race is one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Phil Scott, incumbent governor[1]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- H. Brooke Paige, historian and perennial candidate (running for multiple statewide offices)[a][4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 20,319 | 68.56% | |
| Republican | Stephen C. Bellows | 5,402 | 18.22% | |
| Republican | Peter Duval | 3,627 | 12.24% | |
| Write-in | 290 | 0.98% | ||
| Total votes | 29,638 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
Candidates
Withdrew after winning primary
Replacement nominee
- Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 (cross-endorsement of Democratic nominee)[8][6][7]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Susan Hatch Davis | 470 | 87.36% | |
| Write-in | 68 | 12.64% | ||
| Total votes | 538 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[9][10]
Declined
- Becca Balint, President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[11] (running for U.S. House)[12]
- T. J. Donovan, former Vermont Attorney General[11]
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont[11] (ran for U.S. House)[13]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (running for re-election)[11]
- Doug Racine, former Lieutenant Governor of Vermont and candidate for governor in 2002 and 2010[14][9]
Endorsements
Brenda Siegel
- Federal politicians
- Peter Welch, U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district[15]
- State politicians
- Becca Balint, president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[15]
- Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont and former chair of the Democratic National Committee[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brenda Siegel | 56,287 | 85.92% | |
| Write-in | 9,227 | 14.08% | ||
| Total votes | 65,514 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Peter Duval, engineer and former Underhill selectman[6]
- Kevin Hoyt, candidate for governor in 2020[6]
- Bernard Peters, perennial candidate[6]
Write-ins
Candidates
Declared
- Jacob W. Salvatore, high school student from New Jersey
- Landon Best, high school student from Indiana
- Alex Colley, high school student from Ohio
- Ayden Perkins, high school student from Nevada
- Jackson Williams, high school student from Las Vegas[16]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | August 18, 2022 |
| Politico[20] | Solid R | November 3, 2022 |
| RCP[21] | Safe R | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[22] | Solid R | August 22, 2022 |
| 538[23] | Solid R | August 26, 2022 |
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Brenda Siegel (D/P) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 65% | 24% | 5%[c] | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire | September 29 – October 3 2022 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 31% | 9%[d] | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 68% | 15% | 5% | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 60% | 16% | 8%[e] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
- Phil Scott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic/Progressive | Brenda Siegel[f] | ||||
| Independent | Peter Duval | N/A | |||
| Independent | Kevin Hoyt | ||||
| Independent | Bernard Peters | N/A | |||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- ^ Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2018; Democratic candidate for Attorney General in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and 2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2018 and 2020; Republican candidate for the US House in 2018; Republican candidate for Auditor of Accounts in 2018.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
- ^ Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Davis and "Other" with 4%
- ^ Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).
References
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (May 17, 2022). "Phil Scott to seek 4th term as Vermont governor". WCAX-TV. Archived from the original on May 17, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
- ^ "Brenda Siegel wins Democratic nomination for Governor | Vermont Business Magazine". vermontbiz.com. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Primary Candidate Listing". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Buckle up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape".
- ^ a b c "2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State.
- ^ a b c d e "General Election Candidates". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (August 25, 2022). "Three Vt. Democratic primary winners to run as fusion candidates". wcax.com. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ "General Election 2022". The Vermont Progressive Party. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (March 4, 2022). "Vt. Democrats testing the waters for Gov. Scott challenge". WCAX.com.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2022). "Vermont activist Brenda Siegel launches Democratic bid for governor". VTDigger.
- ^ a b c d Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Vermont Politics". www.politics1.com. Retrieved June 6, 2021.
- ^ "Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint to run for Congress | Vermont Business Magazine". Vermont Biz. December 13, 2021.
- ^ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
- ^ "Racine Mulls Run for Governor". The Vermont Political Observer. February 21, 2022. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
- ^ a b c https://vtdigger.org/2022/10/30/brenda-siegels-odds-of-winning-are-long-but-her-message-may-still-strike-a-chord/
- ^ Hall, Dave (March 28, 2022). "14-year-old Nevada boy is running for governor in Vermont (because legally, he can)". Fox 5 Vegas.
- ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "Vermont Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
External links
- Official campaign websites