2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico
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All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||
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Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico are to be held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the New Mexico gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, and various state and local elections.
Redistricting
Process
In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.[1]
On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district.[2]
Targeting of the 2nd district
In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Harrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."[3]
The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad.[4] After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8.[5]
Legislature's map
On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25-15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas."[6][7][8][9] The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44-24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.[10][11]
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%.[12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%.[13]
District 1
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The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca, and Lincoln, as well as eastern Bernalillo County and most of Albuquerque.[14] Democrat Deb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020,[15] resigned on March 16, 2021 after she was confirmed to become the U.S. Secretary of the Interior.[16] Democrat Melanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021 special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote.[17]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Melanie Stansbury, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021–present)[18]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[19]
- Organizations
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[20]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[21]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[22]
- Sierra Club[23]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
- Albuquerque Journal (post primary)[26]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | 44,223 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 44,223 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Michelle Garcia Holmes, retired police detective, nominee for this district in 2020, and candidate in the 2021 special election[18]
Eliminated in primary
- Louie Sanchez, Albuquerque City Councilor[18]
Disqualified
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 25,822 | 58.7 | |
Republican | Louie Sanchez | 18,171 | 41.3 | |
Total votes | 43,993 | 100.0 |
General election
Debates and forums
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Garcia Holmes | Stansbury | |||||||
1[28] | October 14, 2022 | KOB 4 | Tessa Mentus & Matt Grubs | YouTube | P | P |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[29] | Solid D | April 27, 2022 |
Inside Elections[30] | Solid D | April 22, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
Politico[32] | Likely D | April 18, 2022 |
RCP[33] | Lean D | October 30, 2022 |
Fox News[34] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
DDHQ[35] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
538[36] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist[37] | Likely D | September 28, 2022 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Melanie Stansbury (D) |
Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 372 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 40% | 2%[b] | 8% |
54% | 43% | 3%[c] | – | ||||
Research & Polling Inc. | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 42% | – | 9% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | |||
Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | |||
Write-in | ||||
Total votes |
District 2
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The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities of Las Cruces, Carlsbad, and Alamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs of Albuquerque.[14] The incumbent is Republican Yvette Herrell, who was elected with 53.7% of the vote in 2020.[15]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Yvette Herrell, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021–present)[18]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | 28,623 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 28,623 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Gabe Vasquez, Las Cruces city councilor (2017–2021) and former aide to U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich[38][18]
Eliminated in primary
- Darshan Patel, physician[18]
Declined
- Joe Cervantes, state senator (2012–present)[39]
- Siah Correa Hemphill, state senator (2020–present)[40] (endorsed Vasquez)[41]
- Howie Morales, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico (2019–present) (running for re-election)[39]
- Xochitl Torres Small, Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development (2021–present) and former U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (2019–2021)[39]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | 24,010 | 76.1 | |
Democratic | Darshan Patel | 7,534 | 23.9 | |
Total votes | 31,544 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[29] | Tossup | April 27, 2022 |
Inside Elections[30] | Tossup | April 22, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Lean R | October 26, 2022 |
Politico[32] | Tossup | April 18, 2022 |
RCP[33] | Lean R | June 9, 2022 |
Fox News[34] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
DDHQ[35] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
538[36] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
The Economist[37] | Tossup | September 28, 2022 |
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. Senator from New Mexico (2013–present)[41]
- U.S. Representatives
- Teresa Leger Fernandez, U.S. Representative from NM-03 (2021–present)[41]
- State legislators
- Siah Correa Hemphill, state senator (2020–present)[41]
- Organizations
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers New Mexico[24]
- Newspapers
Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Yvette Herrell (R) |
Gabe Vasquez (D) |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight | July 19 – October 28, 2022 | October 31, 2022 | 49.4% | 45.3% | 5.3% | Herrell +4.1 |
- Graphical summary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Yvette Herrell (R) |
Gabe Vasquez (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 302 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 41% | 1%[e] | 4% |
54% | 44% | 2%[f] | – | ||||
Research & Polling Inc. | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 47% | – | 8% |
Siena College/New York Times | October 20–24, 2022 | 398 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
Global Strategy Group (D)[A] | September 20–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
Global Strategy Group (D)[A] | July 19–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | |||
Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | |||
Write-in | ||||
Total votes |
District 3
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The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities of Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, and Clovis, as well as parts of the Navajo Nation.[14] The incumbent is Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020.[15]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Teresa Leger Fernandez, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021–present)[18]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | 46,940 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 46,940 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Disqualified
- Jerald Steve McFall, farmer[18]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | 28,729 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 28,729 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[29] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
Inside Elections[30] | Solid D | August 25, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
Politico[32] | Lean D | April 18, 2022 |
RCP[33] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Fox News[34] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
DDHQ[35] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
538[36] | Solid D | September 30, 2022 |
The Economist[37] | Safe D | November 1, 2022 |
Endorsements
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee[53]
- CHC BOLD PAC[54]
- End Citizens United[55]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[56]
- Indivisible[57]
- Latino Victory Fund[58]
- League of Conservation Voters[59]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[60]
- National Women's Political Caucus[61]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[21]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[22]
- Sierra Club[23]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
- Organizations
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) |
Alexis Martinez Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 25–28, 2022 | 326 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 53% | 40% | 1%[g] | 7% |
58% | 40% | 1%[h] | – | ||||
Research & Polling Inc. | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 53% | 35% | – | 10% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | |||
Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | |||
Write-in | ||||
Total votes |
Notes
- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- Partisan clients
References
- ^ "Redistricting in New Mexico after the 2020 census". Ballotpedia.
- ^ "Advisory panel endorses redistricting maps for New Mexico". AP NEWS. October 15, 2021.
- ^ Bryan, Susan Montoya. "New Mexico Dems plan to redraw 2nd Congressional district". Las Cruces Sun-News.
- ^ Janway, Dale. "City of Carlsbad: Understanding the redistricting process". Carlsbad Current-Argus.
- ^ "Introducing the 2021 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". Cook Political Report.
- ^ ATTANASIO, MORGAN LEE and CEDAR (December 11, 2021). "New Mexico Senate endorses Democrats' redistricting map". Connecticut Post. Archived from the original on December 11, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- ^ "Revamped New Mexico 3-seat congressional map is advanced". KOB 4. December 8, 2021.
- ^ "Revamped New Mexico 3-Seat Congressional Map Advances". www.usnews.com. December 9, 2021. Archived from the original on December 11, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
- ^ "Bill Breaking Up NM's Three Voting Districts Moves Ahead". The Paper. Associated Press. December 9, 2021.
- ^ "New Mexico CD Map Heads To Governor's Desk". ladailypost.com.
- ^ "New Mexico governor approves 3-district congressional map". December 17, 2021.
- ^ "Dems in New Mexico pulling no punches against #NM02 Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) - and #NM03 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) gets boosted in the latest version". twitter.com. Archived from the original on December 10, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.
- ^ a b c "Redistricting Maps and Data - Final Version". New Mexico Legislature. December 10, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
- ^ a b c Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 2020". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
- ^ "Haaland officially bids farewell to U.S. House". Albuquerque Journal. March 16, 2021. Archived from the original on June 4, 2021. Retrieved October 6, 2021.
- ^ Gowins, Max (June 1, 2021). "Election Results: New Mexico 1st Congressional District Special Election". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022). "5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". elizabethwarren.com.
- ^ "Endorsements - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
- ^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
- ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ a b c "Sierra Club Endorsements". March 19, 2021.
- ^ a b c Clark, Carol (April 19, 2022). "American Federation Of Teachers New Mexico Announces Endorsements For NM Federal Offices". Los Alamos Daily Post.
- ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
- ^ a b c "Editorial: Journal kicks off fall endorsements with races for Congress". Albuquerque Journal. October 16, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f "U.S. Representative primaries official results". Secretary of State of New Mexico. Retrieved September 12, 2022.
- ^ "KOB 4 hosts CD-1 debate between Stansbury, Garcia Holmes". www.kob.com. October 14, 2022. Retrieved October 16, 2022.
- ^ a b c "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 21, 2021.
- ^ a b c "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved December 31, 2021.
- ^ a b c "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. December 17, 2021. Retrieved December 17, 2021.
- ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
- ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
- ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ a b c "The Economist's 2022 House Election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 28, 2022.
- ^ Boyd, Dan (September 15, 2021). "Cruces councilor to announce bid for 2nd CD seat". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
- ^ a b c Simonich, Milan (July 10, 2021). "MLG now more vulnerable than rookie congresswoman". www.santafenewmexican.com. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved November 26, 2021.
- ^ Seibel, Nickolas (October 5, 2021). "Sought-after Correa Hemphill to stick with Senate". Silver City Daily Press. Retrieved October 6, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Clark, Chris (December 17, 2021). "Rep. Leger Fernandez Endorses Former Los Alamos Newspaper Intern Gabe Vasquez For Congress In NM-02". www.ladailypost.com. Los Alamos Daily Post. Retrieved December 17, 2021.
- ^ https://kvia.com/top-stories/2022/10/03/senator-ted-cruz-in-las-cruces-for-rally-with-congresswoman-yvette-herrell-monday%EF%BF%BC/
- ^ "DeSantis heads to battleground states to boost Trump-backed candidates". August 8, 2022.
- ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rep. Yvette Herrell for Re-Election in New Mexico's Second Congressional District". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. September 15, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "ENDORSEMENTS". www.housefreedomfund.com. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Candidates". www.maggieslist.org. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 16, 2022). "Sen. Ron Johnson tops list of Republicans endorsed by top Jewish GOP organization". www.foxnews.com. Fox News. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
- ^ "LECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Yvette Herrell in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District". Tea Party Express. July 13, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- ^ Bernal, Rafael (February 24, 2022). "Hispanic Democrats roll out trio of House endorsements". The Hill.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Gabe Vasquez for Congress". www.lcv.org. March 9, 2022.
- ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Six Candidates for Election to the U.S. House in Four Key States". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 19, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ Chacón, Daniel (January 3, 2022). "Martinez Johnson launches campaign for CD3". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
- ^ "AIPAC PAC Featured Candidates". AIPAC PAC.
- ^ Murray, Stephanie (January 24, 2022). "GOP Senate spending tops $15M in PA". Politico. Retrieved January 24, 2022.
- ^ "Candidates". endcitizensunited.org. End Citizens United. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
- ^ Society, Humane. "2022 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". indivisible.org. Indivisible. September 21, 2018. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
- ^ Akin, Stephanie; Ackley, Kate; McIntire, Mary (March 10, 2022). "At the Races: Retreat rerouted". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Incumbent House Endorsements". www.lcv.org. February 10, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsements - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
- ^ "NWPC 2022 Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus.
- ^ "Congressional Candidate Alexis Martinez Johnson Endorsed by Republican Women's Group 'Maggie's List'".
External links
- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) for Congress
- Jacquelyn Reeve (R) for Congress
- Louie Sanchez (R) for Congress
- Melanie Stansbury (D) for Congress
- Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates