Red Lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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A phrase that has seen excessive use since the Invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Red Lines are intended to warn an opponent, or observer, not to interfere or undertake something that would ‘’cross the red line’’.

On 21 April 2021 Russian President, Vladimir Putin made a speech in which he repeatedly warned the West of red lines that Russia would not accept. The warnings were repeated on many occasions up to the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.[1]

To some experts, the number of red-lines that have been crossed reveal the inability for belligerents involved in the war to project power internationally.[2]

Red Lines of the Russian Federation

The mention of red lines have been in common use since the very start of the renewed conflict in Ukraine to justify the war. In February of 2022, President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation in February stated that the United States and its Western partners had crossed a red line with regard to Ukraine that meant that Russia had to undertake its “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine because of the real threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation.[3]

Crossing a Red Line to the Russian Federation may be identified by actions damaging Russian national interests. Such actions may include the imposing of sanctions, the freezing of funds, the donation of military goods to its perceived adversaries or other.

While commonly used by the Russian Federation in international politics, simultaneously, it has used the red line phrase in shaping narratives aimed at domestic audiences.

Usage of Red Line warnings

Russia has used the phrase ‘’Red Line’’ often, and because some of these lines have been crossed without major repercussions, some believe that Russia has devalued the impact of their threats, seeing them more as bluffs.[4]

There may be an actual Red Line that the Russians really have, but it is unclear what it is.[4]

Some of the red line threats from Russia may simply be to slow the supply of resources to Ukraine, making the West consider their options and delaying action.[5]

Others may be used just to show an element of escalation has taken place once a line is crossed. Red lines are nearly always soft, variable and adjustable rather than cast in stone.[6]

Russia does not always refer to important items as "red lines” however the level of threats accompanying them, such as threating to attack a NATO country or to use nuclear weapons, makes the item an effective “red line”. In diplomacy, both Russia and Ukraine have mentioned red lines when referring to acceptable peace terms, one red line leaves Russia keeping Crimea, the other red line sees all Russian forces leave territory that belonged to Ukraine on 31 December 1991. These red lines are incompatible.

Tacit rules

As time has progressed in the war, a set of tacit rules has emerged, which fit between current operations and red lines and affect the rule creator.[7] [5]

Examples of such tacit rules include:

  • NATO will defend its territory.[8]
  • No NATO forces will operate inside Ukraine against Russian forces. [9]
  • NATO will not operate in the airspace over Ukraine to avoid a direct confrontation.[10]

So Russia would cross a red line if they attacked a NATO country and NATO would cross a self-imposed red line if they sent troops into Ukraine. The above aim to limit an expansion of the war, however it is not all one sided as other tacit rules are:

  • US and NATO will share intelligence and satellite imagery with Ukraine. [11]
  • NATO countries will provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. [12]
  • Ukraine will not use NATO weapons to strike inside Russia.[13]

Effectively making normal, some actions that Russia at the start of the war labeled Red Lines

Identified Red Lines

Russian Red Lines

Date notified Red Line Date broken Consequences Ref.
2014 Crimea not broken [14]
2018 Crimean Bridge 8, October 2022 Heavy missile assaults [15]
November 2021 Ukraine not to join NATO not broken [16]
November 2021 NATO military infrastructure not to be deployed in Ukraine not broken [16]
December 2021 No deployment of soldiers to Ukraine March 2023 [17]
December 2021 No weapons to Ukraine February 2022 Threats over non disguised intervention by NATO [17] [18] [19]
24 February 2022 “Interference” in Ukraine by outside powers 24 February 2022 Reduction in gas supply to the west
February 2022 NATO troops and missiles to be withdrawn from Russia's western border February 2022 War in Ukraine [20]
February 2022 NATO to stop eastward expansion and reverses back to position in 1997 February 2022 War in Ukraine [20]
March 2022 No introducing a “no-fly” zone not broken [21]
March 2022 No more western arms to Ukraine March 2022 Convoys will be considered legitimate targets [22]
March 2022 No MiG-29 fighter jets March 2023 Supplied MiG's will be destroyed [5]
April 2022 No foreign intervention in war not broken [23]
June 2022 No long-range missiles June 2022 New targets hit by Russian missiles [24]
June 2022 No Western made missiles to be fired into Russia not broken [25]
August 2022 No supplying old Soviet tanks to Ukraine August 2022 [26]
September 2022 Germany's supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine crosses a red line September 2022 [27]
September 2022 Russian setbacks on battle field will result in nuclear holocaust September 2022 [28]
September 2022 Do not threaten Russian territorial integrity not broken[citation needed] [28]
September 2022 Not to supply longer range battlefield missiles – (greater than HIMARS's current 50 miles) May 2023 [29]
November 2022 Not to supply Patriot Missile system April 2023 [30]
January 2023 No modern western tanks to be supplied to Ukraine January 2023 [31]
May 2023 No F-16 fighter jets pending [32]

  Current Red Lines

Western red lines

Date notified Red Line Date broken Consequences Ref.
Through 2021 Russia not to invade Ukraine February 2022 Immediate sanctions [33]
February 2022 Threats against a NATO country not broken [34]
March 2022 No chemical weapons not broken [35]
International law Murder and abduction of children 2022-2023 ICC arrest warrant against Putin [36]

Tactics used by the West to downgrade Russian Red Lines

The handover of the first Leopard 2 tanks provided by Poland to Ukraine in February 2023

Red lines come in different strengths, some are bluffs, Russia having used imaginary red lines during the last decade, a number of tactics have been seen to be employed by the West to dilute and wash away some Russian red lines, allowing them to be crossed with little or no consequences.[5] [37] [38][original research?]

  • Noise - The West has employed a tactic of “noise” before a decision is seen to take place to cross a Russian red line, by having a public debate, over a month or even longer, involving numerous countries, with possibly the first weapon being sent from, or via, a third country and once one or two have arrived already, the red line having been diluted without a reaction as no one event can be seen to be an important enough event to be a red line crossing moment.[39]
  • Undermining the red line - Another tactic used is the supplying of something similar, but not as good as the red line weapon, such as the red line over the supply of modern western tanks, when France agreed to supply a number of AMX-10 RC wheeled modern “tanks”, which was not exactly what Ukraine wanted or needed, causing little reaction from Russia, however this moved the debate as to whether it was wheeled vehicles or tracked vehicles that Russia objected to, rather than the fact it was a modern western tank, Challenger 2 tanks were then promised followed by promises of Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams.[40][41]
  • Similar, but not as good - With long range missiles, where Russia objected to the US supplying ATACMS with a range of 300 km, as the missiles could be used to attack targets in Russia, Britain supplied its “Storm Shadow’’ cruise missiles with a range of 250 km. Storm Shadow can also hit targets in Russia, but that is not what Ukraine wants to do, they want to strike deep into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine destroying command and logistics centers located in Ukraine that had previously been moved back out of HIMARS range. Russia having locked in on the 300 km range found its red line diluted and there was no tangible reaction.[42]
  • Drip feed - A decision to supply a large quantity of modern tanks would likely provoke an immediate reaction from Russia, however when a decision is made for a country to supply say 4 tanks, another country may supply seven, a third another four tanks. Russia seems unable to show that a red line has been crossed. By drip feeding from multiple countries, no one country attracts adverse reactions from crossing a red line.[43][44][45]
  • Calling Russia's bluff - Russia has few options to retaliate in a meaningful way against the West for a breach of a red-line, without starting World War III or resorting to the nuclear option.[46]

Third party countries

Many countries outside of the direct belligerents active in the Russo-Ukrainian war have interests within it. This has resulted in foreign parties such as the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the People's Republic of China to establish its own so called red lines.

When the international community refers to the crossing of ‘’Red Lines’’ it tends to be limited to the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and the supply of other lethal weapons. Below, a small list of such red lines has been provided.

  • The People's Republic of China was warned by the United States of America not to supply lethal weapons to the Russian Federation.[47]
  • South Korea was warned by the Russian Federation that supplying weapons would cross a red-line.[48]
  • A red line was drawn by the European Council of the EU when they offered Ukraine and Moldova status as candidates for EU membership in June 2022.[49]
  • The Islamic Republic of Iran was warned that supplying missiles to the Russian Federation would cross a red-line.[50]
  • China has told Russia it would cross a red-line by using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.[51]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  2. ^ "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  3. ^ "Russian Attack on Ukraine: Turning-point in the history of Euro-Atlantic Security". 3 March 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  5. ^ a b c d "Arming Ukraine without crossing Russia's red lines". 6 April 2023.
  6. ^ "Putin Has No Red Lines". 1 January 2023.
  7. ^ "Tacit rules to avoid a NATO-Russia war". 14 March 2022.
  8. ^ "Deterrence and defence". 19 July 2023.
  9. ^ "NATO has no plans to send troops into Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 24 February 2022.
  10. ^ "NATO won't establish no-fly zone over Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 4 March 2022.
  11. ^ "The United States and Allies Sharing Intelligence with Ukraine". 9 May 2022.
  12. ^ "U.S., NATO countries announce massive weapons package for Ukraine". 20 January 2023.
  13. ^ "NATO Weapons Must Not Be Used to Attack Russian Territory, Says Scholz". 5 February 2023.
  14. ^ "Why Crimea's Kerch Bridge Matters – to Russia and the War".
  15. ^ "The Crimea bridge blast was seen as a high-profile blow to Putin. Here's why". 11 October 2022.
  16. ^ a b "Ukraine: Russia's "red line"". 18 February 2022.
  17. ^ a b "Putin's 'red line' over Ukraine: a new test of European and transatlantic resolve". December 2021.
  18. ^ "Who supplies weapons to Ukraine?". 14 February 2022.
  19. ^ "NATO Countries Pour Weapons Into Ukraine, Risking Conflict With Russia". 2 March 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Will markets take the strain from the Russia-Ukraine crisis?". 24 February 2022.
  21. ^ "Putin says sanctions over Ukraine are like a declaration of war". 5 March 2022.
  22. ^ "Western arms convoys to Ukraine are 'legitimate targets,' Russia warns". 11 March 2022.
  23. ^ "Ukraine war: Putin warns against foreign intervention". 27 April 2022.
  24. ^ "Putin warns United States against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles". 5 June 2022.
  25. ^ "Russia warns West of weapons repercussions, pounds Ukraine". 2 June 2022.
  26. ^ "Ukrainians Thank North Macedonia For Supply Of Soviet-Era Tanks". 6 August 2022.
  27. ^ "Russian Envoy Warns Germany about Passed 'Red Line'". 12 September 2022.
  28. ^ a b "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  29. ^ "Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line". 15 September 2022.
  30. ^ "Don't arm Ukraine with Patriot missiles, Ex-Russian president Medvedev warns 'criminal entity' NATO". 29 November 2022.
  31. ^ "Russia fumes at West's decision to send tanks to Ukraine, says red lines have been crossed". 25 January 2023.
  32. ^ "Russia warns West of 'enormous risks' if Ukraine is supplied with F-16 jets". 20 May 2023.
  33. ^ "Where does Russia sanctions policy go from here?". 17 March 2022.
  34. ^ "Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?". 23 February 2022.
  35. ^ "Ukraine: Nato will respond if Russia uses chemical weapons, warns Biden". 25 March 2022.
  36. ^ "Arrest warrant may signal the beginning of the end for Putin". 19 March 2023.
  37. ^ "The West must cross more red lines in the Ukraine war, says Lithuanian president". 12 May 2023.
  38. ^ "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  39. ^ "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  40. ^ "Macron promises 'first Western tanks' for Ukraine". 4 January 2023.
  41. ^ "UK considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks to fight Russian forces". 9 January 2023.
  42. ^ "Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say". 12 May 2023.
  43. ^ "Poland delivers first Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine". 24 February 2023.
  44. ^ "Media: Spain to deliver first Leopard tanks to Ukraine after Easter". 29 March 2023.
  45. ^ "Ambassador: UK to provide twice the promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine". 27 July 2023.
  46. ^ "Putin Is Running out of Red Lines". 24 May 2023.
  47. ^ "US ambassador to the UN says China would cross 'red line' by providing lethal aid to Russia". 19 February 2023.
  48. ^ "Ukraine war: Pressure builds on South Korea to send arms to Kyiv". 8 July 2023.
  49. ^ "Georgia's future may hinge on Russia's war in Ukraine". 20 March 2023.
  50. ^ "ran will cross 'red line' with supplies of missiles to Russia - Kuleba". 5 January 2023.
  51. ^ "China drew nuclear red line for Russia in Ukraine". 6 July 2023.
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