Opinion polling for the next Italian general election

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In the years running up to the next Italian general election, which will occur no later than 22 December 2027,[a] various organisations are carrying out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in Italy.[2][3] The date range is from after the 2022 Italian general election, held on 25 September, to the present day. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. Under the Italian par condicio (equal conditions) law, publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of an electoral campaign.[4]

Party vote

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Parties or lists are ordered according to their share of the vote in 2022.

2022

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size FdI PD M5S Lega FI A–IV AVS +E Italexit UP ISP NM Others Lead
26–31 Oct SWG 1,200 29.1 16.3 16.3 7.9 6.5 8.6 4.1 3.0 2.5 1.4 4.3 12.8
28 Oct Tecnè 1,000 28.1 17.2 16.8 8.5 7.4 7.9 3.7 2.6 1.9 5.9 10.9
25–27 Oct Ipsos 1,000 29.8 18.8 16.0 8.0 6.1 7.1 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 11.0
25–27 Oct Termometro Politico 4,000 28.1 17.8 16.6 8.4 6.8 8.2 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.4 2.8 10.3
26 Oct Proger Index 800 28.0 17.6 16.2 8.6 6.8 8.1 4.1 3.2 2.2 5.2 10.4
26 Oct Euromedia 800 28.4 17.0 17.3 9.5 6.7 8.3 3.4 2.6 2.6 0.8 3.4 11.1
19–24 Oct SWG 1,200 28.3 17.0 16.4 8.6 6.2 8.4 4.1 3.1 2.6 1.2 4.1 11.3
21 Oct Tecnè 1,000 28.0 17.5 16.6 8.4 7.6 7.6 3.6 2.7 1.8 6.2 10.5
20 Oct EMG 1,571 27.3 17.7 16.7 8.4 7.6 8.2 3.9 2.9 2.3 1.3 1.0 2.7 9.6
20 Oct BiDiMedia – 27.1 18.2 16.4 8.5 7.9 8.2 3.8 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 8.9
18–20 Oct Termometro Politico 3,400 27.6 17.8 16.3 8.7 7.0 8.2 3.7 2.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 3.1 9.8
17 Oct EMG 1,615 27.2 18.0 16.5 8.5 7.7 8.0 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.2 1.0 3.2 9.2
12–17 Oct SWG 1,200 27.4 17.0 16.7 8.5 7.5 8.1 4.1 3.3 2.5 1.1 3.8 10.4
16 Oct Noto – 28.0 18.5 16.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 4.0 2.5 1.0 5.5 9.5
14–15 Oct Euromedia 1,000 27.0 17.5 17.2 8.5 7.3 8.7 3.4 2.5 2.4 1.1 4.4 9.5
8–14 Oct Lab2101 1,000 27.2 17.6 17.4 8.9 7.4 8.3 3.9 2.8 1.9 0.7 3.9 9.6
11–13 Oct Termometro Politico 4,100 27.1 18.4 16.5 8.5 7.5 7.8 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.4 3.0 8.7
12 Oct Proger Index 800 27.0 17.8 16.1 8.4 8.0 8.0 3.9 3.0 2.2 5.6 9.2
5–10 Oct SWG 1,200 27.5 17.5 17.0 8.3 7.4 8.0 3.8 3.1 2.4 1.0 4.0 10.0
8 Oct Demos & Pi 1,004 26.4 17.8 16.8 7.9 8.0 7.8 4.2 3.4 2.1 5.6 8.6
5–6 Oct Termometro Politico 3,700 26.6 18.7 16.0 8.6 7.9 8.0 3.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 2.3 7.9
28 Sep–3 Oct SWG 1,200 26.8 18.1 16.5 8.2 7.6 8.3 4.0 3.3 2.2 1.2 3.8 8.7
28 Sep Euromedia 800 26.2 19.0 16.2 8.3 8.1 7.9 3.5 2.7 2.4 0.9 4.8 7.2
25 Sep Election results – 26.0 19.1 15.4 8.8 8.1 7.8 3.6 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 2.9 6.9

Notes

  1. ^ While elections in Italy are customarily held on a Sunday or Sunday and Monday, there is no constitutional requirement to do so; the latest possibile date for a general election to be held is the 70th day following the expiration of the Parliament's five-year term.[1]

References

  1. ^ "Constitution of the Italian Republic" (PDF). Parliamentary Information, Archives and Publications Office of the Senate Service for Official Reports and Communication. Archived (PDF) from the original on 1 September 2022. Retrieved 19 February 2022.
  2. ^ "Sondaggi, dopo elezioni crescono FdI e M5s, Pd e Lega in calo". Sky TG24 (in Italian). 14 October 2022. Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  3. ^ Massaro, Barbara (18 October 2022). "Gli ultimi sondaggi: le intenzioni di voto". Panorama (in Italian). Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Diffusione dei sondaggi" (in Italian). AGCOM. Archived from the original on 7 September 2022. Retrieved 3 November 2022.

External links

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