Metaculus
| File:Metaculus front page.png Metaculus front page | |
| Type of business | Private |
|---|---|
| Available in | English |
| Founded | 2015 |
| Country of origin | United States |
| Area served | Worldwide |
| Founder(s) |
|
| Chairman | Anthony Aguirre |
| CEO | Gaia Dempsey |
| Employees | 10 |
| URL | metaculus |
| Advertising | No |
| Commercial | Yes |
| Current status | Active |
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.[2][3]
Reward system
Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[2] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[4] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[4]
Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[4] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[5]
In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.[6] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.[7]
History
Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.[2][4]
In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.[8] The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[9]
See also
References
- ^ Predicting the Future (of Life), in Future of Life Institute published January 24, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
- ^ a b c The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
- ^ This Site Keeps Track of Elon Musk’s Predictions About The Future, in Futurism published March 10, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
- ^ a b c d Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
- ^ Metaculus FAQ
- ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (January 15, 2020). "The Bentham prize". Metaculus. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
- ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (February 13, 2020). "The Li Wenliang prize series for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak". Metaculus. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
- ^ Metaculus Track Record'
- ^ Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019