2023 Nigerian presidential election

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2023 Nigerian presidential election
← 2019 25 February 2023 2027 →
Opinion polls
  Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png Peter Obi.png
Nominee Bola Tinubu Peter Obi
Party APC LP
Home state Lagos Anambra
Running mate Kashim Shettima Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed
  File:Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.jpg Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Rabiu Kwankwaso Atiku Abubakar
Party NNPP PDP
Home state Kano Adamawa
Running mate Isaac Idahosa Ifeanyi Okowa
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

Elected President

TBD

Politics of Nigeria
Coat of arms of Nigeria.svg
Constitution
Government
Legislature
  • State Delegations
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Subdivisions
Elections
  • Recent elections
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Foreign relations

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election will be held on 25 February 2023 to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Incumbent APC President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and cannot seek re-election for a third term.

Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March. The winners of the election will be inaugurated on 29 May 2023, the former date of Democracy Day.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on 28 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu on 8 June.[2][3] For the less politically represented Labour Party and New Nigeria Peoples Party, former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi was nominated on 30 May and former Governor of Kano State Rabiu Kwankwaso was nominated on 8 June, respectively.[4][5] In the weeks after the primaries, vice presidential running mates were announced with Abubakar choosing Governor Ifeanyi Okowa on 16 June while his main opponents initially picked placeholder running mates before later substituting in substantive nominees.[6][7][8] Obi selected former Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed on 8 July, Tinubu picked Senator Kashim Shettima on 10 July, and Kwankwaso chose pastor Isaac Idahosa on 14 July.[9][10]

Electoral system

The President of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of states.

Background

After the first term of Muhammadu Buhari as President, he won re-election to the office as the nominee of the All Progressives Congress by defeating Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party with a margin of 14 percentage points—nearly 4 million votes. For the legislative elections, the APC solidified its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after nearly losing the majorities due to defections in 2018. On the state level, the PDP gained two in total as the party gained four governorships from the APC while the APC gained two governorships from the PDP. During the first two years of the 2019–2023 term, the APC expanded slightly through the defections of dozens of state and federal legislators and three governors—Ebonyi State's Dave Umahi, Cross River State's Benedict Ayade, and Zamfara State's Bello Muhammad Matawalle—but went through a prolonged leadership crisis;[11] for the PDP, the losses through defection took a toll but the party resolved its leadership crisis and held a peaceful convention.[12] During the second half of the term, both parties were hit by defections but the APC held its long-postponed convention and the PDP underwent public disputes over not zoning its presidential nomination.

Ahead of Buhari's second term, his promises included the completion of in-process rail lines and other infrastructure projects, the further inclusion of women in government, educational reform, and increasing anti-corruption initiatives.[13] In terms of his performance, the administration was commended for improving the agriculture sector, finishing infrastructure projects, successful advances in the fight against terrorists in the northeast, securing the return of previously looted public funds from abroad, and increasing the minimum wage.[14][15][16][17][18][19][20] However, he faced criticism for abandoning anti-corruption initiatives, poor quality of life, an increasingly dire security situation outside of the northeast (bandits and some terrorist expansion in the North West, herder-farmer and interethnic conflicts in the North Central, pirates and illegal oil bunkering gangs in the Niger Delta, and a violent separatist movement in the South East along with nationwide kidnapping and security force brutality epidemics), and increasing national debt.[21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37] Buhari also came under fire for instituting a seven-month long national ban on Twitter after the site removed an abusive tweet he posted in reference to the Civil War; the ban was decried as a failed attempt at censorship.[38] Another key source of controversy was the administration's handling of the October 2020 protest wave of the End SARS movement with the most fervent criticism emerging over the Lekki massacre when soldiers in Lagos killed multiple peaceful protesters before the Army and administration attempted to deny the shooting ever took place.[39]

Buhari also had to contend with a fluctuating, but consistently low, approval rating.[40]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[1][41] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the South (the South East, South South, and South West geopolitical zones) to have the next President as Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice. Another informal convention calls for nominees to have vice presidential running mates from a different region and religion as themselves. Despite the arrangement, most parties did not formally close their primaries to non-Southern candidates or officially designate that their tickets cannot have running mates of the same religion.

Both the APC and PDP had heated internal debates over zoning and same religion tickets in the year ahead of the primary. Despite the informal convention, the People's Democratic Party declined to formally zone its nomination in early May 2022 before going against the convention to nominate northerner Atiku Abubakar; the All Progressives Congress also declined to formally zone its nomination but later nominated a southerner Bola Tinubu as its flagbearer.[42][43] But the APC broke the other major convention by picking a same religion ticket while the PDP did not.

All Progressives Congress

2022 All Progressives Congress presidential primary
← 2019 8 June 2022 2027 →
Turnout91.09%
  Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png Chibuike Amaechi (cropped).jpg Yemi Osinbajo 2017-05-27.jpg
Nominee Bola Tinubu Rotimi Amaechi Yemi Osinbajo
Party APC APC APC
Home state Lagos Rivers Ogun
Popular vote 1,271 316 235
Percentage 60.5% 15.0% 11.2%
Elected Presidential Nominee

Bola Tinubu
APC

With Muhammadu Buhari having been elected to the presidency twice, he was ineligible for renomination. In July 2021, then-national APC Caretaker Chairman and Yobe State Governor Mai Mala Buni backed the consensus method of nominating a presidential candidate instead of the more common direct or indirect primary methods but the party did not come to a decision on primary method at the time.[44] During Buni's term as Caretaker Chairman from 2020 to 2022, he campaigned heavily for prominent PDP members to defect to the APC, weakening the opposition's caucus in the National Assembly and gaining three governors—Ebonyi State's Dave Umahi, Cross River State's Benedict Ayade, and Zamfara State's Bello Muhammad Matawalle—in 2020 and 2021. However, the APC's electoral performance and party unity were more mixed as it came a distant third in the 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election[a] and was still beset by infighting.[45] The APC primary was framed in the wider context of internal party feuds stemming from the APC's formation in 2013 and pre-2019 election party crises to the 2020 removal of party leadership and contentious 2021 state party congresses. The ability of the APC national caretaker committee to resolve state party factionizations and properly organize the 2022 national party convention was seen as vital for both the APC's presidential chances and its future as a party.[46] After several postponements, the convention was successfully held on 26 March 2022 despite some controversy over the consensus method used for most party offices.[47][48]

In terms of zoning, there was no announced formal zoning agreement for the APC nomination despite calls from certain politicians and interest groups such as the Southern Governors' Forum to zone the nomination to the South as Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice.[49][50] Countering its proponents were prospective candidates from the North and the Northern Governors' Forum, which did not oppose a southern presidency but initially disagreed with formal zoning.[51] On the other hand, there were few proponents of a same religion ticket, mainly supporters and allies of eventual nominee Bola Tinubu who argued that there were few powerful Northern Christian APC politicians who could be his running mate.[52] Allies of other potential candidates and groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria came out strongly against the idea of a same religion ticket on grounds of national unity and religious harmony.[53][54]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party timetable for the presidential primary and that the primary would use the indirect primary method. The announcement set the party's expression of interest form price at ₦30 million and the nomination form price at ₦70 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[55] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were to be screened by a party committee on 24 and 25 May but it was delayed several times to while the screening appeal process will take place afterwards.[56][57][58] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were rescheduled for between 12 and 14 May to elect "ad hoc delegates" for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process were to advance to a primary set for 30 May and 1 June but the party delayed the primary to 6–8 June.[59][60][61][62]

Before the primary, controversy over the prospective electors emerged due to the legal ramifications of the amended Electoral Act. After years of debate and public pressure, Buhari signed a new Electoral Act in January 2022 that drastically reformed election and electoral systems for both primary and general elections. One of the reforms was the exclusion of ex officio "statutory delegates"—thousands of current and former officeholders—from voting in party primaries; National Assembly leadership said the exclusion was inadvertent and in May, NASS passed an amendment to the act to allow statutory delegates to vote in primaries.[63] However, Buhari refused to sign the amendment into law, forcing the APC to suddenly prohibit statutory delegates from voting. Not only did the action prevent Buhari and other high-ranking officeholders from voting, it drastically reduced the number of delegates from over 7,800 to just the 2,322 elected "ad hoc delegates."[64][65][66]

The pre-primary period was dominated by questions around major candidates and Buhari's endorsement. Of the formally announced candidates, analysts viewed five as the major contenders: Rotimi Amaechi—former Minister of Transportation and former Governor of Rivers State, Kayode Fayemi—Governor of Ekiti State, Ahmad Lawan—Senate President, Yemi Osinbajo—Vice President, and Bola Tinubu—former Governor of Lagos State; however, two potential surprises emerged: former President Goodluck Jonathan and Governor of the Central Bank Godwin Emefiele. Groups purchasing forms on behalf of Emefiele and Jonathan coupled with months of speculation about their candidacies led to rumours of a plot to impose one of the two as nominee despite the legally-mandated nonpartisanship of Emefiele's office and Jonathan's membership in the PDP; neither candidacy came to fruition as Jonathan refused the forms while Emefiele was forced to withdraw due to public pressure.[67] The other main question was Buhari's endorsement; despite months of contending that he would not weigh in on the primary, about a week before the primary, Buhari held a meeting with APC governors where he asked them to support his preferred candidate.[68][69] Reports emerged that while the vast majority of governors agreed, a few rejected the proposal or did not state their position.[70] Another point of contention was the oft-postponed candidate screening, where a committee led by former APC National Chairman John Odigie Oyegun cleared all twenty-three candidates but recommended only thirteen candidates continue their campaigns due to their perceived chances of victory.[71][72]

In the days directly before the primary, the vast majority of northern APC governors released a letter in support of a southern nominee where they also asked northern candidates to withdrew; in response, one northern candidate withdrew from the primary.[73] Later that day (4 June 2022), Buhari held a meeting with most APC candidates where he reportedly privately backed a nominee being from the south and told the candidates to find a consensus nominee amongst themselves.[74] However, on 6 June—the day before primary voting, national party chairman Abdullahi Adamu told northern APC governors that the party's (and Buhari's) consensus candidate would be Lawan; the announcement was met with opposition by governors and other members of the party's National Working Committee leading the party to backtrack and claim that Adamu was just expressing his personal opinion.[75][76][77][78] The same day, Buhari stated that he had no anointed candidate in the primary.[79] Then early on primary day, APC governors and the party NWC made a joint recommendation of five southern candidates—Amaechi, Fayemi, Osinbajo, Tinubu, and Governor of Ebonyi State Dave Umahi—to Buhari while asking all other aspirants to withdrew from the race.[80] Seven other candidates released a joint statement rejecting the shortlist while all six southeastern candidates penned a letter to Buhari asking that the nomination be zoned to the South-East.[81][82]

On the day of the primary, delegates gathered in Eagle Square, Abuja to be accredited and vote. The early part of the exercise was beset by logistical issues as there were significant delays in both delegate and journalist accreditation along with the deployment of tear gas by security to disperse crowds.[83][84][85] Meanwhile inside the Square, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission personnel took positions to prevent bribery before candidates gave their final speeches to the delegates before voting.[86] During these speeches, six candidates—Godswill Akpabio, Ibikunle Amosun, Dimeji Bankole, Robert Ajayi Boroffice, Fayemi, and Uju Kennedy Ohanenye—stepped down in favour of Tinubu and one aspirant—Nicholas Felix—withdrew for Osinbajo while the remaining candidates issued promises and proposals for their prospective campaigns.[87] After the candidate speeches and an address by Buhari, voting began in the early morning of 8 June and after hours of voting, votes were publicly tabulated.[88] When collation completed, Bola Tinubu emerged as nominee after results showed him winning 60% of the votes with a margin of 45% over runner-up Amaechi.[89][90][3] In his acceptance speech, Tinubu thanked his team while striking a conciliatory tone in regards to his former opponents.[91] Post-primary analysis noted multiple potential reasons for Tinubu's victory, namely: other candidates' focus on a Buhari endorsement that never came, the failure of Buhari's succession plan, bribery, and the last-minute withdrawals.[92][93][94] The week after the primary were based around the search for Tinubu's running mate, as Tinubu is a southern Muslim it was expected that his running mate would be a northern Christian but controversy emerged as some prominent APC politicians stated their openness to a Muslim-Muslim ticket.[95][96] As the deadline neared, the party submitted the name of Kabir Ibrahim Masari—a politician and party operative from Katsina State—as a placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted at a later date.[8] On 10 July, Ibrahim Masari withdrew and Tinubu announced Kashim Shettima—a senator and former Governor of Borno State—as his running mate after a meeting with Buhari in Daura.[97][10] Breaking the anti-same religion ticket convention, Tinubu argued in a statement that "religion...cannot always and fully determine our path" and that he picked "the man who can help me bring the best governance to all Nigerians, period, regardless of their religious affiliation" and compared the ticket to the last Yoruba Muslim-Kanuri Muslim ticket, the successful M. K. O. Abiola-Baba Gana Kingibe slate in 1993.[98] Opponents, like the Christian Association of Nigeria and civil society groups, derided the pick as divisive in a trying time for Nigerian unity.[99][100] Analysts noted the previous reports from before Tinubu was nominated that said his inner circle did not think a Northern Christian would help the party in the majority-Muslim states and thus a fellow Muslim should be picked.[101][102]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Bola Tinubu (60.47%)
  Rotimi Amaechi (15.03%)
  Yemi Osinbajo (11.18%)
  Ahmad Lawan (7.23%)
  Other candidates (6.09%)
APC primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Bola Tinubu 1,271 60.47%
APC Rotimi Amaechi 316 15.03%
APC Yemi Osinbajo 235 11.18%
APC Ahmad Lawan 152 7.23%
APC Yahaya Bello 47 2.24%
APC Dave Umahi 38 1.81%
APC Benedict Ayade 37 1.76%
APC Ahmad Sani Yerima 4 0.19%
APC Ogbonnaya Onu 1 0.05%
APC Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba 1 0.05%
APC Tunde Bakare 0 0.00%
APC Tein Jack-Rich 0 0.00%
APC Ikeobasi Mokelu 0 0.00%
APC Rochas Okorocha 0 0.00%
Total votes 2,102 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 13 N/A
Turnout 2,322 91.09%

Peoples Democratic Party

2022 Peoples Democratic Party presidential primary
← 2019 28 May 2022 2027 →
Turnout98.43%
  Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg
Wike
 Bukola Saraki (cropped).jpg
Nominee Atiku Abubakar Nyesom Wike Bukola Saraki
Party PDP PDP PDP
Home state Adamawa Rivers Kwara
Popular vote 371 237 70
Percentage 49.3% 31.5% 9.3%
Elected Presidential Nominee

Atiku Abubakar
PDP

In October 2021, newly elected PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu backed the indirect primary method of nominating a presidential candidate instead of the direct or consensus methods.[172] In the year prior to Ayu's election at the October 2021 PDP National Convention, the party had been beset by months of defections from prominent members, most notably of over a dozen National Assembly members and three governors—Ebonyi State's Dave Umahi, Cross River State's Benedict Ayade, and Zamfara State's Bello Muhammad Matawalle; the party also came a distant second in the 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election and suspended then-national party chair, Uche Secondus.[173] However, the PDP was able to hold its convention without controversy or violence in October, electing nearly all party officials by consensus and inaugurating the full National Working Committee in December.[12]

In terms of zoning, the PDP did not have a formal zoning agreement for the nomination, however, there were calls from certain politicians and interest groups such as the Southern Governors' Forum to zone the nomination to the South as the APC's Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice.[174][175] Amid calls for zoning, the party set up an internal committee in March 2022 with a decision on the issue expected by April.[176][177] However, the decision's release was delayed until May when the party announced that it would not zone its nomination.

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its primary schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦35 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold from 18 March to 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 29 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect "ad hoc delegates" for the primary; ex officio "statutory delegates"—thousands of current and former officeholders—will not be electors unlike previous primaries.[178][179][180] Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 28 and 29 May.[181][182]

At the party screening, a committee led by former Senate President David Mark cleared most candidates but disqualified two—Nwachukwu Anakwenze and Cosmos Chukwudi Ndukwe; The disqualifications were then upheld by a screening appeal committee led by Ayu.[183][184] After the screening, the party's oft-postponed zoning decision was announced with the PDP National Executive Council choosing not to zone the nomination to any particular region, throwing the race open to all candidates.[185] Of the candidates, analysts viewed five as the most likely to win: Atiku Abubakar—former Vice President and 2019 presidential nominee, Peter Obi—former Governor of Anambra State and 2019 vice presidential nominee, Bukola Saraki—former Senate President, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal—Governor of Sokoto State and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Nyesom Wike—Governor of Rivers State with a few other notable candidates seen as unlikely to have a chance.[186][187] However, a few days before the primary, Obi suddenly withdrew from the primary and decamped to the Labour Party.[188][189]

In the days before the primary, controversy over the prospective electors emerged due to the legal ramifications of the amended Electoral Act. After years of debate and public pressure, Buhari signed a new Electoral Act in January 2022 that drastically reformed election and electoral systems for both primary and general elections. One of the reforms was the exclusion of ex officio "statutory delegates"—thousands of current and former officeholders—from voting in party primaries; National Assembly leadership said the exclusion was inadvertent and in May, NASS passed an amendment to the act to allow statutory delegates to vote in primaries.[63] However, Buhari refused to sign the amendment into law, forcing the PDP to suddenly barr statutory delegates from voting. Not only did the action prevent incumbent governors and other high-ranking officeholders from voting, it drastically reduced the number of delegates to just 810 then 774.[65][190][191][192]

On the day of the primary, delegates gathered in the Velodrome of the Moshood Abiola National Stadium to be accredited and vote. Despite a few unexpected events, including the arrival of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission personnel meant to prevent bribery and the withdrawal of candidate Mohammed Hayatu-Deen in protest of the "obscenely monetized" race, the process continued as every candidate gave a final speech to the delegates before voting.[193][194] Another surprise came after the speeches, when Tambuwal returned to the dais to withdraw from the primary and direct his delegates to vote for Abubakar.[195] After the withdrawal, voting began and after over an hour of voting, the votes were publicly tabulated. When collation completed, Atiku Abubakar emerged as nominee after results showed him winning just under 50% of the votes with a margin of 18% over runner-up Wike.[196][197][2] Later investigations into reported vote breakdowns stated that Abubakar won the majority of delegates from the North West and North East while delegates from the North Central and South West split Abubakar, Saraki, and Wike; delegates from the South East and South South also split, mainly between Abubakar and Wike but with Emmanuel winning a portion of the votes.[198] In his acceptance speech, Abubakar vowed to carry the party to victory in the general election on a platform based on unity and economic growth while striking a conciliatory tone in regards to his former opponents. Post-primary analysis noted multiple potential reasons for Abubakar's victory, namely: Tambuwal’s withdrawal, Abubakar's public office and campaign experience, the higher number of Northern delegates, and bribery.[199] The weeks after the primary were dominated by the search for Abubakar's running mate, as Abubakar is a northern Muslim it was expected that his running mate would be a southern Christian with Wike, Emmanuel, and Governor of Delta State Ifeanyi Okowa being shortlisted as potential options.[95][200] On 16 June, Abubakar announced that Okowa would be his running mate;[6][201] observers noted that despite Okowa's South South origins, his Ika ethnicity could be a nod to southeastern clamours for an Igbo running mate.[f][202][203] In the announcement speech, Abubakar said that he consulted party leadership in the search for his running mate and that Okowa was chosen due to his extensive experience and personal qualities.[204]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified by screening committee

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

  Atiku Abubakar (49.34%)
  Nyesom Wike (31.52%)
  Bukola Saraki (9.31%)
  Udom Gabriel Emmanuel (5.05%)
  Other candidates (4.78%)
PDP primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Atiku Abubakar 371 49.34%
PDP Nyesom Wike 237 31.52%
PDP Bukola Saraki 70 9.31%
PDP Udom Gabriel Emmanuel 38 5.05%
PDP Bala Mohammed 20 2.66%
PDP Anyim Pius Anyim 14 1.86%
PDP Sam Ohuabunwa 1 0.13%
PDP Diana Oliver Tariela 1 0.13%
PDP Ayo Fayose 0 0.00%
PDP Chikwendu Kalu 0 0.00%
PDP Dele Momodu 0 0.00%
PDP Charles Ugwu 0 0.00%
Total votes 752 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 12 N/A
Turnout 764 98.43%

Minor parties

Accord

Accord first scheduled its primary for 2 June before shifting it to 4 June.[243][244] That day the party nominated entrepreneur, Christopher Imumolen, as its presidential nominee. The nomination was determined by voice vote after all other candidates stepped down.[245][246] On 25 August, Bello Bala Maru—a former Zamfara State cabinet official—was named as Imumolen's running mate.[247]

Accord primary results[245]
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen Voice vote 100.00%
Total votes N/A 100.00%
Turnout N/A 100.00%
Action Alliance

Candidates' vote share

  Hamza al-Mustapha (70.08%)
  Samson Odupitan (29.92%)

The Action Alliance initially scheduled its primary for 3 June 2022 but moved it to 9 June with forms being sold from 4 April to 15 May.[248] The expression of interest form price was set at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦10 million with a 50% discount for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[249][244]

On the primary date, two candidates (Tunde Kelani and Felix Johnson Osakwe) withdrew while the other two candidates continued to an indirect primary in Abuja that ended with Hamza al-Mustapha—former military dictator Sani Abacha's former security officer, close aide, and death squad leader—emerging as the party nominee after results showed al-Mustapha winning over 70% of the delegates' votes.[250] In his acceptance speech, al-Mustapha called for national and party unity before his sole opponent, Samson Odupitan, pledged to support al-Mustapha in the general election.[251] Chukwuka Johnson was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee.

AA primary results[250]
Party Candidate Votes %
AA Hamza al-Mustapha 506 70.08%
AA Samson Odupitan 216 29.92%
Total votes 722 100.00%
Turnout 854 100.00%
Action Democratic Party

The Action Democratic Party scheduled its primary for 31 May where the party nominated its national chairman, Yabagi Sani, as its presidential nominee. The nomination was determined using the consensus method which ended in Sani's emergence as nominee. Sani thanked the party in his acceptance speech, noting that the consensus method was beneficial and promising to adhere to party members as their nominee.[252] On 23 June, Udo Okey-Okoro was announced as Sani's running mate.[253]

ADP primary results[252]
Party Candidate Votes %
ADP Yabagi Sani Consensus 100.00%
Total votes N/A 100.00%
Turnout N/A 100.00%
Action Peoples Party

The Action Peoples Party nominated Osita Nnadi and Isa Hamisu as the party's presidential and vice presidential nominees, respectively.

African Action Congress

The years prior to the AAC primary were beset by a party crisis as two groups both claimed to be the legitimate party organization, one faction led by Leonard Nzenwa and the other faction led by party founder Omoyele Sowore.[254] Both politicians claimed to be party chairman with INEC initially recognizing Nzenwa until Sowore was confirmed to be the rightful chair in early June 2022.[255]

The African Action Congress initially scheduled its primary for 1 to 3 June before moving it to 9 June with candidates registering to contest between 6 and 9 May.[256] The party waived fees for both its expression of interest and nomination forms with candidates only having to pay ₦500,000 "obligatory donation" fees with a 25% discount for women and no fees for candidates with disabilities, students, honorably discharged security personnel, teachers, nurses, and emergency service workers.[257][258]

On the primary date, Sowore was the sole candidate but first resigned as party chairman before the primary in accordance with the party constitution.[259] He then won the nomination by acclamation.[260][261][262] At the end of the month, Haruna Garba Magashi—a lawyer from Kano State—was unveiled as the vice presidential nominee in Abuja.[263]

AAC primary results[260]
Party Candidate Votes %
AAC Omoyele Sowore Consensus 100.00%
Total votes N/A 100.00%
Turnout N/A 100.00%
African Democratic Congress

During the 2019 elections, the ADC solidified its place as one of the larger minor parties by becoming the fourth largest party in the House of Representatives and taking a distant fourth in the presidential race. However, the party faced difficulty as the majority of its legislators decamped to different parties during their terms.[264]

The African Democratic Congress initially scheduled its primary for 1 June but rescheduled it for 8 June with forms being sold from 24 March to 24 May.[244] The expression of interest form price was set at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with forms being free for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[265][266]

Candidates' vote share

  Dumebi Kachikwu (49.29%)
  Kingsley Moghalu (29.69%)
  Chukwuka Monye (17.09%)
  Other candidates (7.51%)

Ahead of the primary in Abeokuta, it was noted that the ADC had a high number of aspirants compared to other smaller parties with analysts viewing two as the major contenders: Dumebi Kachikwu—Roots Television Nigeria founder and brother of former minister Ibe Kachikwu along with Kingsley Moghalu—a former Central Bank official.[264][267][268] On the primary date, the candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Kachikwu emerging as the presidential nominee after results showed him winning just under 50% of the delegates' votes.[269][270] A few days later, Moghalu left the party in protest amid allegations that Kachikwu's win was mainly due to bribes given to delegates.[271] Kachikwu denied the allegations and claimed that it was Moghalu that attempted bribery;[272] however, a few days later, American assets of Kachikwu were seized and a previous seizure related to the William J. Jefferson corruption case resurfaced leading to questions on his credibility.[273] The party first nominated Ahmed Mani for the vice presidency as a placeholder before picking Malika Sani later in June;[274] however, Sani's nomination fell through and about a month later, Kachikwu announced Ahmed Buhari—an oil and gas consultant from Niger State—as his substantive running mate.[275] Soon afterward, the party descended into crisis as factions attempted to expel Kachikwu.[276]

ADC primary results[269]
Party Candidate Votes %
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu 978 49.29%
ADC Kingsley Moghalu 589 29.69%
ADC Chukwuka Monye 339 17.09%
ADC Chichi Ojei 72 3.63%
ADC Ebiti Ndok-Jegede 5 0.25%
ADC Angela Johnson 1 0.05%
Total votes 1,984 100.00%
Turnout 2,100 100.00%
Allied Peoples Movement

The Allied Peoples Movement initially scheduled its primary for 30 May but rescheduled it for 9 June.[277][244] Party chairman Yusuf Mamman Dantalle was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed at the party secretariat.[278] Princess Chichi Ojei was then nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee. However, Dantalle withdrew from the nomination in July and Ojei was nominated in his place.[279] She later picked Ibrahim Mohammed as running mate.

All Progressives Grand Alliance

In 2021 and 2022, APGA retained the Anambra State governorship by a substantial margin and gained a senator through defection, cementing its place as the nation's third largest party. However, the party rarely expands out from its southeastern base and has not obtained over a percent of the vote in any presidential election since 2003.

The All Progressives Grand Alliance scheduled its primary for 1 June 2022 with ward congresses set for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary. The expression of interest form price was set at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for women and candidates with disabilities;[280][281] forms were to be sold from 29 March to 11 April but the deadline was extended to 15 April.[282]

On primary day, Peter Umeadi—former Chief Judge of Anambra State—was the sole presidential candidate and was nominated by voice vote.[283] Abdullahi Muhammed Koli, a labour union activist from Bauchi State, was announced as Umeadi's vice presidential running mate on 12 June.[284]

APGA primary results[283]
Party Candidate Votes %
APGA Peter Umeadi Voice vote 100.00%
Total votes 150 100.00%
Turnout 150 100.00%
Boot Party

The Boot Party nominated Sunday Adenuga and Mustapha Usman Turaki as the party's presidential and vice presidential nominee, respectively.

Labour Party

In 2021, a number of politicians and activists led by Patrick Utomi, Attahiru Jega, and Femi Falana announced an effort to find a party to lead a "Third Force" alliance in an attempt to unseat the APC and the PDP.[285] After a number of delays, in May 2022, the group adopted the Labour Party as its platform with hopes of forming an alliance with a number of other smaller parties.[286][287][288][289] The party received another boost when former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi joined the party in May 2022 to continue his presidential campaign after leaving the PDP.[290] Obi was welcomed into the party by its leadership which also used the announcement to attack the APC and PDP as well as commit to the party manifesto.[291] However, the party had to contend with deep divisions as a factional crisis from 2018 is still in the courts.[292]

The Labour Party initially scheduled its primary for 3 June but rescheduled it for 30 May.[293][244] It set the price for expression of interest and nomination forms at ₦30 million. On the day of the primary, 104 delegates gathered in Asaba for the primary but no election was needed as three of four candidates—Utomi, Olubusola Emmanuel-Tella, and Joseph Faduri—withdrew in favour of Obi. Obi then won the primary unanimously with only a sole invalid vote not going for him. In his acceptance speech, he promised to revolutionize the nation economically and mobilize an effective general election campaign.[4][294] A few days after the primary, the other Labour faction held its own parallel primary but INEC recognized the Obi-won election.[295] On 17 June, the party submitted the name of Doyin Okupe—a physician and former PDP candidate who became the Director-General of the Obi Campaign Organisation—as a placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[7] On July 7, Okupe formally withdrew ahead of the announcement of Obi's substantive running mate.[296] The next day, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed—a businessman who previously served as Senator for Kaduna North—was announced as the party's vice presidential nominee.[9] Analysts noted the regional balance of the ticket as Baba-Ahmed is a northerner but questioned his electoral experience as he has not won an election since 2011; at the same time, pundits said his prominent Zaria-based family and technocratic image could help Obi.[297][298]

LP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
LP Peter Obi 96 100.00%
Total votes 96 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 1 N/A
Turnout 97 93.27%
National Rescue Movement

The National Rescue Movement scheduled its primary for 1 and 2 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1.5 million and nomination form price at ₦17.5 million with a 50% discount for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[299] At the primary, Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike—a businessman—defeated seven other candidates to win the nomination by a margin of over 60% of the vote.[300] However, when INEC released its provisional nominee list, Nwa-Anyajike had been substituted for Felix Johnson Osakwe—a withdrawn AA presidential candidate; Nwa-Anyajike and other party members allege that Osakwe colluded with a portion of NRM leadership to forge Nwa-Anyajike's withdrawal and substitute Osakwe as the nominee.[301] When the INEC final nominee list was released in September, Osakwe's name remained as the party presidential nominee with Yahaya Muhammad Kyabo as vice presidential nominee.[302]

Candidates' vote share

  Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike (78.26%)
  Benedicta Egbo (14.78%)
  Other candidates (6.96%)
NRM primary results[300]
Party Candidate Votes %
NRM Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike 180 78.26%
NRM Benedicta Egbo 34 14.78%
NRM Ibrahim Yunusa 10 4.35%
NRM Vincent Anthony Ubani 2 0.87%
NRM Sam Emiaso 1 0.43%
NRM Barry Avotu Johnson (withdrawn) 1 0.43%
NRM Emeka Mandela Ukaegbu 1 0.43%
NRM Solomon Uchenna Winning 1 0.43%
NRM Francis Ikechukwu Igbo (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 230 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 10 N/A
Turnout 240 100.00%
New Nigeria Peoples Party

In early 2022, former Governor of Kano State Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP.[303] Within a few weeks, a number of other politicians (mainly from the North, especially Kano State) joined the party and Kwankwaso was named national leader of the party in preparation for his presidential campaign.[304][305][306]

The New Nigeria Peoples Party initially scheduled its primary for 1 and 2 June 2022 before pushing it back to 8 June.[244] To elect delegates for the primary, ward and local government congresses were set for 22 and 25 April, respectively. The expression of interest form price was set at ₦10 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with those forms being sold from 10 to 15 April.[307]

Ahead of the primary, the party attempted to woo Peter Obi to be Kwankwaso's running mate but he instead went to the Labour Party;[308][309] as an alternative, presidential candidate Olufemi Ajadi stepped down and agreed to be Kwankwaso's running mate.[310] Ajadi's withdrawal left Kwankwaso unopposed in the primary.[311] On 8 June, Kwankwaso won the nomination by voice vote at the primary in Velodrome of the Moshood Abiola National Stadium.[312][5] The party would later nominate Ladipo Johnson instead of Ajadi as a placeholder vice presidential nominee while negotiations with the Labour Party resumed.[313][314] After the negotiations failed, Isaac Idahosa—a Lagos-based pastor originally from Edo State—was named as the substantive vice presidential nominee on 14 July.[315]

NNPP primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
NNPP Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso Voice vote 100.00%
Total votes N/A 100.00%
Turnout 774 100.00%
People's Redemption Party

Candidates' vote share

  Kola Abiola (59.88%)
  Usman Bugaje (23.22%)
  Patience Key (9.39%)
  Gboluga Mosugu (7.51%)

The People's Redemption Party first scheduled its primary for 28 May but moved it to 4 and 5 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦500,000 and its nomination form price at ₦10 million with a 50% discount for women candidates and free nomination forms for candidates with disabilities.[316] In the primary, Kola Abiola—businessman and the son of former president-elect M. K. O. Abiola—defeated three other candidates to win the nomination by a margin of over 37% of the vote.[317] Unlike other parties' presidential primaries, the PRP had delegates vote from their state events instead of holding one central primary. In the weeks after the primary, Ribi Marshal was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee; he was replaced by Haro Haruna Zego in the final INEC nominee list.[302]

PRP primary results[317]
Party Candidate Votes %
PRP Kola Abiola 2,097 59.88%
PRP Usman Bugaje 813 23.22%
PRP Patience Key 329 9.39%
PRP Gboluga Mosugu 263 7.51%
Total votes 3,502 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 158 N/A
Turnout 3,660 100.00%
Social Democratic Party

The Social Democratic Party initially scheduled its primary for 28 to 30 May 2022 but one faction instead scheduled its primary for 8 June while the another faction held its primary on 31 May. Ward/LGA and state congresses were set for 19 May and 20 May, respectively, to elect delegates for the primary.[318][319] The party set its expression of interest form price at ₦3 million and its nomination form price at ₦32 million with a 50% discount for youth and free forms for women and candidates with disabilities.[320]

The months prior to the SDP primary were beset by a party crisis as two groups both claimed to be the legitimate party organization.[321][322] On 31 May, the Supo Shonibare-led faction held its primary and nominated Ebenezer Ikeyina—former Senator for Anambra Central—unopposed.[323][324][325] On 8 June, the Olu Agunloye-led faction held its primary at the Abuja International Conference Centre and nominated Adewole Adebayo—a lawyer and media mogul—by a wide margin over his sole opponent, Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi.[326] Adebayo's nomination was recognized by INEC as he and his vice presidential running mate—Yusuf Buhari—were placed on the final nominee list.[302]

SDP (Shonibare faction) invalid primary results[323]
Party Candidate Votes %
SDP Ebenezer Ikeyina 308 99.35%
SDP Against Ebenezer Ikeyina 2 0.65%
Total votes 310 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 1 N/A
Turnout 311 100.00%
SDP (Agunloye faction) primary results[326]
Party Candidate Votes %
SDP Adewole Adebayo 1,546 94.90%
SDP Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi 83 5.10%
Total votes 1,629 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes 44 N/A
Turnout 1,673 97.84%
Young Progressives Party

The Young Progressives Party initially scheduled its primary for 1 June before moving it to 8 June.[244] It was won by Malik Ado-Ibrahim, the founder of the Reset Nigeria Initiative and son of Ohinoyi of Ebiraland Abdul Rahman Ado Ibrahim, by a large margin over Ruby Isaac.[327] In his acceptance speech, Ado-Ibrahim vowed to unify Nigerians and provide basic services.[328] Kasarachi Enyinna was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee.

YPP primary results[327]
Party Candidate Votes %
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim 66 94.29%
YPP Ruby Isaac 4 5.71%
Total votes 70 100.00%
Turnout 70 94.59%
Zenith Labour Party[g]

The then-Zenith Labour Party[g] initially scheduled its primary for 1 June before moving it to 8 June;[244] setting its expression of interest form price at ₦5 million and the nomination form price at ₦18 million with free forms for women, youth, and candidates with disabilities.[330] At the primary, Dan Nwanyanwu—the party national chairman—won the nomination on the same day that the party name was changed to the Zenith Progressives Alliance.[329] Ramalan Abubakar was nominated as the party's vice presidential nominee.

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released a timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[1] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[331]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[h] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 10 June 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 17 June 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 28 September 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 23 February 2023 – Final day of the official campaign period
  • 25 February 2023 – Election Day

Recognized parties and nominees

After the 2019 elections, INEC deregistered 74 political parties for failing to "satisfy the requirements" of continued registration based on their performances during the elections.[332][333][334] The move, which was unsuccessfully challenged in court several times from 2019 to 2022, left the nation with 18 political parties: Accord, the Action Alliance, the Action Democratic Party, the Action Peoples Party, the African Action Congress, the African Democratic Congress, the Allied Peoples Movement, the All Progressives Congress, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, the Boot Party, the Labour Party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party, the National Rescue Movement, the Peoples Democratic Party, the People's Redemption Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Young Progressives Party, and the Zenith Progressives Alliance. In March 2022, INEC announced that no new parties would be registered before the 2023 elections.[335]

Parties were required to submit their presidential and vice presidential nominees between 10 and 17 June 2022.[331][336] On 25 June, INEC released the provisional list of most recognized presidential and vice presidential nominees.[337] The final list was released on 20 September.[302]

2023 Presidential nominees
Party Ticket
Presidential nominee Vice Presidential nominee
Accord Christopher Imumolen Bello Bala Maru
Action Alliance Hamza al-Mustapha Chukwuka Johnson
Action Democratic Party Yabagi Sani Udo Okey-Okoro
Action Peoples Party Osita Nnadi Isa Hamisu
African Action Congress Omoyele Sowore Haruna Garba Magashi
African Democratic Congress Dumebi Kachikwu Ahmed Buhari
All Progressives Congress Bola Tinubu Kashim Shettima
All Progressives Grand Alliance Peter Umeadi Abdullahi Muhammed Koli
Allied Peoples Movement Princess Chichi Ojei Ibrahim Mohammed
Boot Party Sunday Adenuga Mustapha Usman Turaki
Labour Party Peter Obi Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed
National Rescue Movement Felix Johnson Osakwe Yahaya Muhammad Kyabo
New Nigeria Peoples Party Rabiu Kwankwaso Isaac Idahosa
People's Redemption Party Kola Abiola Haro Haruna Zego
Peoples Democratic Party Atiku Abubakar Ifeanyi Okowa
Social Democratic Party Adewole Adebayo Yusuf Buhari
Young Progressives Party Malik Ado-Ibrahim Kasarachi Enyinna
Zenith Labour Party[g] Dan Nwanyanwu Ramalan Abubakar

Election administration

Primary and post-primary period

Party primaries are administered by the parties themselves but must be monitored by Independent National Electoral Commission observers and fall inside the scheduled primary period set by INEC. The commission released the timetable in February 2022 with a final date of 3 June 2022 for party primaries; as this date neared, parties repeatedly asked INEC to extend the deadline by two months.[338] After several refusals, INEC agreed to a shorter extension of six days to 9 June but the decision proved controversial as pundits noted that the PDP was about to hold its primary while the APC had not even screened its candidates.[339][340] Further criticism arose because INEC initially did not also extend the voter registration deadline in kind.[341][342]

After the primaries, focus shifted to voter registration and the logistical issues surrounding it. Due to years of IPOB attacks on southeastern INEC offices, the commission's capacity in the region was low in 2022 while in Lagos, a registration drive by market traders in June 2022 that overwhelmed an INEC centre also drew the commission's registration capability into question as the deadline neared.[343][344] In the wake of the incidents, INEC deployed extra registration machines to Lagos State, Kano State, and some southeastern states.[345] Around the same time, INEC hinted at a potential extension of the registration deadline before a court ruling later in June pushed back the deadline anyway.[346][347][348] In compliance with the ruling, INEC set the new deadline for 31 July while simultaneously extending daily registration hours from six to eight.[349] Ahead of the deadline, eleven states declared public holidays for voter registration in an attempt to increase public participation in the political process.[350] After the deadline passed, INEC announced that nearly 12.3 million new voters registered during the exercise.[351][352] 8.75 million of the new voters were younger than 34, a percentage noted as a potential sign of increased youth participation ahead of the election.[353] After the registration drive, the total registered voters number was about 96.2 million with the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones having the most voters.[354]

As the official campaign period neared, INEC focused on direct public communication and formed the Election Crisis Communication Team in late August. During the team inauguration, commissioner Festus Okoye stated that the group's formation was initiated by the Centre for Democracy and Development to combat misinformation and inform the public on key events to the public; Okoye also said that the commission was in the process of training staff to work polling units.[355] Focus shifted back to registration afterwards, with INEC delisting over 1.1 million invalid registrants in mid-September.[356][357] Among the final pre-campaign period procedures was the 20 September release of the nominee list along with the reiteration of the timetable.[302]

Campaign period

The official campaign period began on 28 September 2022 and will end on 23 February 2023.[331] At the start of the campaign period, reports noted the pressure placed on INEC from voters, misinformation, and political parties.[358]

In late October, the commission again announced mass delisting of invalid registrants with 2.78 million enrollees (including the prior 1.1 million invalid registrants) being removed from the list due to double registration, underaged registration, and other issues. At the same event, INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu also revealed that the preliminary total valid registrant number was about 93.52 million.[359]

Campaign

Timeline

  • 28 April 2021: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announces 18 February 2023 as the election day.[360]
  • 10 November 2021: APGA nominee Charles Chukwuma Soludo is declared winner of the off-cycle Anambra State gubernatorial election that took place on 6 November; the PDP and APC nominees come distant second and third places, respectively.[361]
  • 28 January 2022: Then-aspirant Bola Tinubu goes to London, reportedly on a medical trip; the trip comes just a few months after Tinubu returned from a three-month medical stay in the United Kingdom.[362]
  • 26 February 2022: INEC revises the election date, moving the election to 25 February 2023 and releasing the rest of the electoral timetable.[1]
  • 16 March 2022: The Peoples Democratic Party announces its primary schedule, setting 28 and 29 May as its primary days.[182]
  • 20 April 2022: The All Progressives Congress announces its primary schedule, setting 30 May and 1 June as its primary days.[59]
  • 12 May 2022: In the wake of the Lynching of Deborah Yakubu, then-aspirant Atiku Abubakar is heavily criticized for deleting a tweet condemning the murder.[363]
  • 25 May 2022:
  • 27 May 2022: INEC slightly revises its electoral timetable, allowing parties an extra six days to conduct primaries.[41]
  • 28 May 2022:
  • 30 May 2022: The LP holds its primary in Asaba, nominating Obi unopposed.[4]
  • 7 and 8 June 2022: The APC holds its primary in Abuja, nominating former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu over Rotimi Amaechi, Yemi Osinbajo, and eleven other candidates.[3]
  • 16 June 2022: Abubakar picks Ifeanyi Okowa—the Governor of Delta State—as the PDP vice presidential nominee.[6]
  • 17 June 2022:
    • Tinubu picks Kabir Ibrahim Masari—a party operative—as the APC placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[8]
    • Obi picks Doyin Okupe—the Obi campaign manager—as the LP placeholder vice presidential nominee to be substituted for someone else at a later date.[7]
  • 18 June 2022: Rabiu Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party presidential nominee and the former Governor of Kano State, and Okupe both announce productive discussions between minor parties on forming a coalition for the elections.[366][367]
  • 19 June 2022: APC nominee Abiodun Oyebanji is declared winner of the off-cycle Ekiti State gubernatorial election that took place the day before; the PDP nominee comes a distant third place.[368]
  • 24 June 2022: Documentation submitted by Tinubu to INEC is released, revealing that he did not state the primary or secondary school he attended. The new form reignited the longtime certificate and personal history controversies around Tinubu as the form was in direct contradiction with previous sworn forms and public statements.[369][370][371]
  • 5 July 2022: Okupe announces that LP-NNPP coalition talks have collapsed.[372]
  • 7 July 2022: Okupe formally withdraws as LP vice presidential nominee.[296]
  • 8 July 2022: Obi picks Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed—former Senator for Kaduna North—as the substantive LP vice presidential nominee.[9]
  • 10 July 2022:
  • 14 July 2022: Abubakar returns to Nigeria after spending weeks abroad on an undisclosed trip.[373]
  • 17 July 2022: PDP nominee Ademola Adeleke is declared winner of the off-cycle Osun State gubernatorial election that took place the day before, gaining the office for the party; the APC nominee comes a close second place.[374]
  • 20 July 2022: The appearance of people wearing liturgical garments at the formal Shettima nomination rally leads to controversy as the APC claims the people are clergy while Christian groups and activists mock the group as paid actors without genuine congregations.[375][376][377][378]
  • 1 August 2022: After the end of the voter registration period the day before, INEC announces nearly 12.3 million new registered voters.[351]
  • 15 September 2022: The first public presidential poll is released. Conducted by NOI Polls for the Anap Foundation, the results show Obi in a slight lead at 21% with Tinubu and Abubakar close behind at 13% each.[379]
  • 20 September 2022:
    • Ezenwo Nyesom Wike (PDP)—Governor of Rivers State and runner-up in the PDP presidential primary—withdraws from the Abubakar campaign along with several of his allies. The grouping,[i] which had been feuding with Abubakar for months, announced their refusal to assist the PDP presidential campaign until PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu—an Abubakar ally from Benue State—left his position in favor of a southerner.[380]
    • INEC releases the final list of recognized presidential and vice presidential nominees.[302]
  • 28 September 2022:
    • Official campaign period commences.[381]
    • The PDP Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated at the formal commencement of the Abubakar campaign.[382]
  • 29 September 2022: Most candidates along with parties' chairmen sign a peace accord in Abuja; Tinubu is absent and sends Shettima as his representative.
  • 6 October 2022: Tinubu returns to Nigeria after spending weeks abroad on an undisclosed trip.[383]
  • 15 October 2022: Abubakar says that 'northerners do not need Yoruba or Igbo candidates' at an event. The comment is heavily criticized by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions.[384]
  • 21 October 2022: Tinubu releases his eight-point policy agenda along with his full manifesto before the revised APC Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated at the formal commencement of his campaign.[385][386]
  • 28 October 2022: The revised LP Presidential Campaign Council (composition) is inaugurated.[387]
  • 29 October 2022: A rally in Lafia marks the formal commencement of the Obi campaign.[388]

Summary

For both nominees of the major party, the early parts of the general election campaign in June and July 2022 were dominated by attempts to unify their parties amid the search for a running mate. For Tinubu, the selection of Ibrahim Masari as a placeholder running mate in mid-June bought the APC several weeks to continue party reconciliation efforts as controversy swirled over the religious affiliation of Tinubu's potential running mates. On the other hand, Abubakar had to contend with a burgeoning party crisis as allies of Governor Nyesom Wike—first runner up in the PDP primary—began to publicly protest against the perceived disrespect towards Wike; their protests centered around Abubakar's disregard for a party committee recommendation of Wike for the vice presidential nomination but some PDP figures also objected to Abubakar in general due to the violation of zoning. The upheaval reached the point of Wike allies publicly questioning if they would support Abubakar and privately threatening to leave the party while national party chairman Iyorchia Ayu's neutrality was questioned and Abubakar himself spent weeks abroad in the midst of the crisis.[389][390][391] As the PDP desperately attempted to reconcile Wike and Abubakar, Obi and Kwankwaso held meetings with Wike in an attempt to bring him into their respective parties.[392][393][394][395] These meetings took place as representatives of Obi and Kwankwaso were also meeting in an attempt to form a NNPP-LP coalition; however, these negotiations were derailed in early July when Kwankwaso publicly refused to be Obi's vice presidential running mate on the grounds that northerners would not vote for a southeasterner.[396][397] A few days later, Obi's campaign announced that the coalition discussions had failed and that the campaign had shifted towards the search for a vice presidential nominee which ended in the selection of Baba-Ahmed.[372] As the LP ticket constituted, the PDP crisis continued as Wike publicly met with several APC governors on 8 July while Abubakar extended his stay abroad despite the party infighting, Eid al-Kabir, and the Osun gubernatorial election campaign in mid-July.[398][399][400] For Tinubu, when he finally selected Shettima as his running mate on 10 July, immediate blowback confronted his campaign amid accusations of religious intolerance for the Muslim-Muslim ticket with even some other APC members condemning the ticket.[99][401] Later in July, Abubakar returned to the nation while Tinubu was in a difficult position as backlash against the APC ticket continued and his relative—incumbent Osun Governor Gboyega Oyetola—lost to PDP nominee Ademola Adeleke in the Osun gubernatorial election;[373][402] similarly, questions emerged over Labour's weak showings in both Osun and Ekiti.[403] Takeaways from the gubernatorial election focused on the potential impact of the PDP's victory on the presidential race and the extremely successful election administration from INEC.[404] To make matters worse for the Tinubu campaign, the appearance of people wearing liturgical garments of various Christian denominations at Shettima's nomination rally on 20 July led to further backlash since observers noted the group's lack of identification and the Christian Association of Nigeria publicly challenged the APC to name the supposed clergy.[375][376][377]

By late July and early August, Tinubu and Abubakar continued to face high-profile dissent from within their own parties as prominent northern Christian APC members—like former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir David Lawal and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Yakubu Dogara—publicly condemned the same religion APC ticket while Wike and his allies continued their public criticism of Abubakar and PDP leadership.[405][406][407][408][409][410] In response, Tinubu appointed Governor of Plateau State Simon Lalong—a northern Christian—as the Director-General of his Campaign Council while in early August, Abubakar and Wike finally met for the first time since Okowa's selection and agreed on a reconciliation framework.[411][412][413][414][415][416][417] However, both the APC and PDP backslid into their respective crises as protests against the APC ticket drew thousands and it continued to come under fire from prominent northern Christians while the opposing camps within the PDP had returned to public squabbling by mid-August.[418][419][420][421][422] Around the same time, voter registration ended with analysts noting its effect on the race as a whole.[423] The rest of August was dominated by notable meetings as Wike meet with both Tinubu and Obi before another reconciliatory summit with Abubakar;[424][425][426] while pundits speculated that Tinubu and Obi attempted to sway Wike to their camps, reporting on the series of Wike-Abubakar talks revealed some of Wike's demands with a focus on the resignation of PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu.[427][428][429] The location of these meetings in London, United Kingdom sparked controversy as critics labeled the location as insensitive to the plight of Nigerians domestically.[430][431] Around the same time, observers noted a potential opening for Kwankwaso but even his NNPP devolved into crisis in August as the PDP poached a key Kano State figure from the NNPP amid a threeway fight for the state's massive electorate.[432][433][434][435] Further reporting began to focus on specific states and regions as ThisDay analysis surmised that the PDP was strengthening in previously pro-Buhari states in the North West, the APC was retaining its prime position in the South West but the LP was growing among urban youth, it was Obi vs. Abubakar in the South South and South East, and the North Central was a tossup region.[436] In the weeks afterwards and as candidate profiles were released in preparation for the official campaign period's commencement at the end of September, the PDP desperately attempted to end its crisis by having two northerners holding prominent internal party positions be replaced by southerners but as Ayu remained in office as chairman, Wike continued his public indignation before he and his allies[i] announced their withdrawal from PDP campaigning on 20 September until Ayu left office.[437][438][439][380] Due to the PDP infighting, pundits looking ahead to the campaign period began to speculate on the potential benefits for Tinubu and Obi as several Wike allies are influential in key states.[440][441] At the same time, the first public poll of the race was released with Obi in the lead;[379] although the campaigns of Abubakar and Tinubu dismissed the results, analysts noted enthusiasm among Obi's base due to his active campaigning as a potential reason for his lead considering both Abubakar and Tinubu devoted more effort to intraparty reconciliation from May to September.[442]

At the end of September, the official campaign period began with the signing of a peace accord in Abuja by nearly all candidates along with parties' national chairmen; notably, Tinubu was absent with Shettima as his representative.[443][444] During the week, Abubakar and Tinubu formed their campaign councils amid controversy for both as the Wike dispute continued in the PDP while the composition of the APC campaign council led to internal disquiet.[445] For Obi, his campaign received another positive polling result as he led a Bloomberg News-commissioned poll by a massive margin;[446] he was also buoyed by significant nationwide support rallies on Independence Day but faced difficulties in campaign organizing as his manifesto and campaign council were delayed.[447][448][449] Overall, late September and early October was categorized similarly to the pre-campaign period time, with analysis repeatedly noting that Obi was solidifying support and enthusiasm while Abubakar and Tinubu were occupied trying to stop further intraparty rebellion.[j][448] However, Obi promptly faced scandal due to the controversial initial makeup of his campaign council which forced a retraction and review after backlash from supporters and the LP.[451][452] A few days later, the race was derailed by a video of Abubakar calling for northerners to reject Yoruba or Igbo candidates; the comment met with widespread condemnation by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions.[384][453] Meanwhile, Tinubu and the APC revised their campaign council to address internal objections before holding a formal campaign commencement on 21 October where Buhari unveiled Tinubu's manifesto before inaugurating the campaign council.[454][455] Around the same time, campaigning focused on catastrophic nationwide floods with analysts noting that the floods had put more focus on climate change and wider environmental policy issues amid the campaign period.[456] Obi preparations concluded near the end of the month, as the revised LP campaign council was inaugurated on 28 October and the campaign's commencement rally held the next day;[387][388][457]

Polling

Polling organisation/client Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png Peter Obi.png File:Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.jpg Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg Others Undecided None/No response/Refused
Tinubu
APC 		Obi
LP 		Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Abubakar
PDP
NIO Polls for Anap Foundation September 2022 1,000 13% 21% 3% 13% 1% 32% 17%
Premise Data for Bloomberg 5–20 September 2022 3,027 16% 72% – 9% 4% – –
Commencement of the official campaign period. (28 September 2022)

Issues

In the wake of party primaries, several major factors for the upcoming general election campaign were noted, namely: ethnic and religious identity, the role of Buhari and his incumbency power, the economy, corruption, the personal brands of candidates, and public anger with the political status quo.[458] Ahead of the official campaign period, major candidates were to release their policy documents: Abubakar did so in late May but Obi and Tinubu did not unveil their policy documents until after the campaign period commenced in September 2022 with Tinubu releasing his manifesto in mid-October.

Corruption

Nigeria has lost hundreds of billions of United States dollars from corruption since independence and its Corruption Perceptions Index score has worsened since 2016.[459] However, after the primaries, analysts noted the unlikelihood of corruption becoming a massive electoral issue as both Abubakar and Tinubu have credible, longstanding major corruption allegations; Obi's candidacy slightly altered this dynamic as allegations against him are more minor. Another reason for the low focus on corruption was the failure of Buhari's anti-corruption war, the promise of which was central to his 2015 campaign.[460] While more major issues like insecurity and poverty have taken centre stage, corruption is still a pervasive policy problem.[461]

For Abubakar, although there are some allegations surrounding his civil service career, much of the graft alleged is based on a United States Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs report from 2010 that directly implicated Abubakar and his family in a massive intercontinental bribery scheme.[462] The report, issued in the wake of the William J. Jefferson corruption case which also implicated Abubakar,[463][464] stated that Abubakar's then-wife Jennifer Iwenjiora Douglas brought over $40 million in “suspect funds” into the United States while Abubakar was Vice President with the sources of those funds being bribes given to Abubakar by businesses in exchange for preferential treatment and contracts in a process akin to crony capitalism.[461][462] These bribes and other suspect cash transfers led the American government’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to later place Abubakar and his wives on an international banking surveillance watchlist.[465] Abubakar has repeatedly denied the report's findings since its release in 2010. Accusations against Tinubu were also serious but different to Atiku's; in a form of corruption associated with the term state capture, Tinubu is alleged to have continuously hijacked billions of naira in Lagos State internal revenue for his own personal and political aims.[461] Through a law he signed while governor, Alpha Beta Consulting—a company heavily linked to and alleged to be directly controlled by Tinubu and his allies—has the sole right to collect state taxes and receives a 10% commission[k] for the collection.[461] The founder of Alpha Beta alleges that Tinubu has directly profited from the allocation for about twenty years plus Tinubu is under active investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission as of June 2021.[461][467] Coupled with the state capture controversy is Tinubu's forfeiture of about $460,000 to the United States government in 1993 as a result of a case asserting that the government had "probable cause" to believe Tinubu's American bank accounts held the proceeds of heroin dealing; reporting showed that Tinubu had served as a bagman for two Chicago heroin dealers in the early 1990s.[461][468][469] For Obi, there are not major scandals although he was mentioned in the Pandora Papers leaks surrounding offshore companies for tax evasion.[470]

In his platform, Abubakar identified corruption as a 'major problem' that "denies millions of people their fundamental freedoms and human rights" before vowing to enact "institutional reforms of anti-corruption agencies" to strengthen them along with creating a "comprehensive National Anti-corruption Strategy."[471] Tinubu's manifesto noted fighting corruption as a benefit of its civil service and judicial reforms.[472][473]

Economy

The years ahead of the election were extremely difficult for the national economy as several debilitating recessions and high inflation greatly decelerated economic growth amid increasing unemployment.[474] Coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, food prices have skyrocketed and millions of people are projected to fall into poverty if current trends hold.[475][476][477][478][479] In addition, the country is at risk of losing its frontier market status due to a shortage in United States dollars and the poor economic situation has led to fears to further social unrest.[480][481] While Buhari has repeatedly claimed that his administration has improved the nation, some analysts blamed his economic policies for compounding the crisis as massive borrowing plus underwhelming revenue led total debt payment to exceed government’s revenue by mid-2022.[482][483][484][485][486] Other analysts have taken a still negative but more mixed view of Buhari's economic policies noting the signing of the Petroleum Industry Act and agricultural production improvements while reiterating the failures in economic growth, high inflation, rising debt, and high unemployment.[487]

As the campaign period began, analysts noted that the three major candidates had broke with Buhari on economic issues with more business-friendly rhetoric and support for further devolution of certain resource control to the states; however, the candidates differ on messages and detailed plans.[488] Similar to his 2019 campaign, the focus of Abubakar's economic agenda revolves around privatisation of government-owned businesses targeting the rail network, oil refineries, and power transmission along with ending the remaining government monopolies in other infrastructure sectors.[488] The other two points of his economic plan are increased commitments to public-private partnerships and allowing "the market greater leverage in determining prices.”[489] While critics like the electricity workers' union derided the privatisation proposal as "retrogressive" and noted the numerous failures of previous privatisations, the Abubakar campaign defended the plan as necessary for "sustainable growth" and good national budgeting.[490][491] Abubakar stated that these ideas along with a close public-private sector relationship could double the GDP within seven years.[488] For Obi, time was spent studying other countries' economics prior to the release of his policy plans; in interviews, he lamented the inefficiency of the Nigerian economy and floated reforming the fuel subsidy system—the subsidies, long-maligned by economists but popular among politicians, are projected to cost the government over 4 trillion naira in 2022 and 6.7 trillion naira in 2023.[492][493] Later overview of his economic policies in addition to more interviews showed that Obi focused on financial "prudence" with emphasis on saving money and streamlining spending.[488] Like Obi and Abubakar, Tinubu backs expansion of public-private partnerships but he is also in favor of introducing commodity exchange and futures markets.[488] Furthermore, Tinubu backs the creation of regional economic development agencies for each geopolitical zone, blockchain regulatory reform, increased crude oil production, and tax enforcement/devolution along with the deregulation of gas prices and the phasing out of the fuel subsidy system in favor of alternative government investments.[473][488][494][495][496][497]

Education

The Nigerian education system faced consistent challenges on all levels in the years before the election as UNICEF noted about 20 million out-of-school children in 2022 while also showcasing issues in early childhood education and primary school attendance, especially among girls and in the North.[l][498][499][500] While UNICEF and the federal government have formed plans to improve education and enroll children in school, two matters severely hurt the education at-large directly ahead of the election and have made the topic a campaign issue: the impact of insecurity on schools and the eight-month long 2022 Academic Staff Union of Universities strike.[501][502][503][504][505] Amidst rising insecurity in 2021 and 2022, both mass kidnappings of schoolchildren and preemptive school closures for safety have made education extremely dangerous while the government-ASUU dispute and the union's ensuing strike led to mass protests as activists criticized the alleged indifference of the Buhari administration.[506]

During the early part of the general election campaign, Obi called on the federal government to hold productive negotiations with ASUU to end university closures while explaining that he intended on using savings from reforming the fuel subsidy to invest in education; Obi supporters also noted the large educational improvements in Anambra State during his term as governor.[507][508][509] In his policy document, Abubakar labeled the ASUU strike as an example of the "incessant industrial action" facing the nation while noting the failures of the public education system; one of his five points is to "improve and strengthen the education system" and later in the platform, Abubakar proposed creating "an agency for the regulation of private tertiary education," vowed to promote science and technical education, and suggested partially devolving education to the state level.[471] For Tinubu's part, education was also one of his agenda's "points" and his manifesto noted the importance of education to national development while vowing to upgrade educational infrastructure, end classroom overcrowding, and increase the number of trained teachers.[473]

Ethnic identity

Identification as Nigerian or Member of an Ethnic Group poll[510]
The 2022 API Social Cohesion Survey

  "I feel equally (ethnic) and Nigerian" (36%)
  "I feel more (ethnic) than Nigerian" (35%)
  "I feel only (ethnic)" (15%)
  "I feel more Nigerian than (ethnic) " (10%)
  "I feel only Nigerian" (4%)

Although political questions on identity are often based on region and religion, ethnicity also plays a role as the election is the first presidential election since 1983 with three major candidates each from the three largest ethnic groups as Abubakar is Hausa–Fulani,[m] Obi is Igbo, and Tinubu is Yoruba.

As the Igbo are the sole group of the largest three ethnicities to have never produced an elected Executive president, Igbo groups like Ohanaeze Ndigbo called for an Igbo to be elected president and protested when the major parties nominated Abubakar and Tinubu.[511] The group also condemned Igbos who accepted the vice presidential slot, a direct slight to PDP vice presidential nominee Okowa.[f][512] For Tinubu's part, prior to the primary, he claimed that it was 'the turn of the Yorubas' to lead the country in a fiery Yoruba language campaign speech in Abeokuta.[513] Coupled with controversy over Abubakar's northern origins was the fact that he is an ethnic Fulani, just like Buhari.[514]

During the campaign, Abubakar was intensely rebuked by civil society organisations and opposing campaigns for stoking ethnic divisions in an October speech where he said that 'northerners did not need Yoruba or Igbo candidates.' The direct appeal to ethnic jingoism also may have violated Section 97 of the Electoral Act 2022 and led to fears of ethnic-based electoral violence.[384][515][516] Later that month, ethnicity again rose to the forefront of the campaign as Afenifere—an influential Yoruba socio-cultural organization—became deeply divided over whether to support Tinubu or Obi.[517]

Infrastructure

Facing major infrastructural problems across the nation like a lack of urban public transportation and a largely deteriorated highway network due to an absence of maintenance is a constant in election campaigns.[518][519] In terms of performance, although the Buhari administration invested in and expanded some transportation projects—like the Lagos–Kano Standard Gauge Railway and Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport rehabilitation, the 2019–2023 term saw continued failures in providing basic access to electricity culminating in multiple massive power grid collapses in 2022.[16][520][521] Still the billions spent on other new infrastructure projects like the Lekki Deep Sea Port and gas pipelines have proven fruitful as more projects begin operations despite setbacks and delays.[522] However, later reporting reiterated that the nation could not afford the debts incurred for projects with little guarantee of proper maintenance.[523]

The new Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport terminal interior.

In his manifesto, Tinubu promised to "modernise and expand public infrastructure" through his "National Infrastructure Campaign" wherein unemployed workers would be hired to upgrade infrastructure like the highway and water supply systems.[473] Additionally, the platform announced the "Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP)" plan to use technology and improved monitoring to "eliminate attacks on vital national infrastructure" such as illegal oil bunkering.[473] While Abubakar's policy document did not provide detailed infrastructural plans, he did promise to "break [the] government monopoly in all infrastructure sectors" in line with his other economically liberal policy positions. The PDP nominee's platform also vowed to accelerate infrastructural investment and, more specifically, diversify the nation's sources of power and deliver up to 25,000 MW by 2030 through "power sector reform."[471]

Insecurity

The years ahead of the election were marked by a deteriorating security situation nationwide. While further advances in the fight against terrorists in the northeast led to thousands of refugees being able to return to their communities, the situation in the rest of the nation became increasingly dire: North West—the deadly bandit conflict in addition to terrorist expansion; North Central—herder-farmer and interethnic conflicts along with more terrorist expansion, Niger Delta—pirates and illegal oil bunkering gangs, and South East—a violent separatist movement.[24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31] Coupled with the regional crises, the continued proliferation of kidnapping and mob violence along with an epidemic of security force brutality have affected the entire country and led to increasing reliance on vigilantes and public anger at the perceived indifference of the administration.[524][34][525][526][527][528][529] The election itself also is affected by the security crisis as civil society groups noted the possibility for electoral violence stemming from pre-existing violent groups.[530]

During the primaries and early general election campaign, several notable attacks[n] led to ever-increasing focus on the security plans of major presidential candidates as the death toll mounted and violent non-state actors increased in power.[531] For Tinubu, his longtime support for state police was expected to be the pinnacle of his security plan but it was not included in his manifesto, which instead spotlighted plans for specialized anti-terrorist battalions (ABATTS), improving community relations, and secure forested areas often used as bandit hideouts;[473][532] however, analysts had noted that the failure of the Buhari administration on security could hurt Tinubu on the issue.[533] Obi focused on the root causes of insecurity, highlighting his job creation plans while Abubakar similarly pitched his job creation plan while proposing more police officers along with logistical registration and alternative conflict resolution means in his policy document.[532][471] Obi's commitments to reform to address security force brutality led his campaign to receive large amounts of support from backers of the End SARS movement.[534][535]

National unity

Unity and Division poll[536]
The 2022 API Social Cohesion Survey

  Feel that Nigeria is "Much more divided" than 2017 (66%)
  Feel that Nigerian unity "stayed the same" compared to 2017 (20%)
  Feel that Nigeria is "Much more united" than 2017 (10%)
  "I'm not sure" (4%)

While polls showed low levels of affinity for the nation and high dissatisfaction with the status quo, reports also demonstrated that the vast majority of citizens feel connected to their Nigerian identity; however, the vast majority also fear for Nigerian unity.[537] The Abubakar's campaign prioritized national unity by including it as the first of his five-point agenda while noting that "Nigeria's unity has never been threatened like now." His countermeasures focused on "co-operation and consensus" along with 'true federalism.'[471] For Tinubu, his platform mentioned including "national unity and pride" in educational curricula.[473]

Regional identity

The six geopolitical zones of Nigeria.

The election marks a return to presidential elections with major candidates from around the nation after the all-Northern election in 2019. The majority of early discussion on regional identity revolved around the zoning principle and the failure of the PDP to adhere to it.[538][514] While pundits noted that the regional power-sharing "federal character" principle was at times disregarded by the Buhari administration, some analysts expressed worry for a political system that normalizes regional exclusion.[539][540] Further discussion centered on both major parties' failure to microzone their nominations to the South East; according to some southeastern groups, the South East should have produced the next president as it has never produced an elected president. The largest of these groups, Igbo socio-cultural organization Ohanaeze Ndigbo, accused the APC and PDP of an apparent "conspiracy" against ethnic Igbos amid other groups' calls to support Obi—a native of Anambra State.[541][542]

As the campaign began, analysis reports on the candidates' prospects by region emerged with reports on if Tinubu could hold the APC's northern strength when facing a major northern opponent;[543] similarly, questions on if Abubakar could hold the PDP's southern strength when facing two major southern opponents also took a primary role in analysis.[544] In the search for running mate, major candidates sought to achieve regional balance as northerner Abubakar picked southerner Okowa while southerners Obi and Tinubu chose northerners Baba-Ahmed and Shettima, respectively.

During the campaign, region-based questions emerged with pundits questioning if Shettima's laudation of former dictator Sani Abacha would hurt Tinubu outside of a select few Northern areas were Abacha is not reviled;[545] later, it was speculated that Abubakar's jingoist October statement was a play for Northern votes as Tinubu and Obi targeted the region.[546] Additionally, questions emerged over the South as pundits noted the possibility that Obi and Abubakar could split the PDP's former southern base;[547] there were also questions about the potential impact on southeastern turnout if separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu was released from imprisonment.[548]

Religious identity

Due to the nation's religious diversity, a key tenet of power-sharing are tickets with running mates of the different religions;[549][550] however, like zoning, this principle was challenged in the lead-up to the election as allies of then-aspirant Tinubu alleged that there were few influential Northern Christian APC politicians who could be his running mate and thus, Tinubu could pick a northern Muslim instead.[551][552] As Tinubu is himself Muslim, such a pick would comprise a Muslim-Muslim ticket to the anger of groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria;[553][554][550] a same religion ticket was also noted as untimely amid a rise in religious violence, especially against Christians.[555][556][554] However, some prominent APC politicians stated their openness to a Muslim-Muslim ticket after Tinubu became party nominee, claiming that basing the vice presidential slot on religion was tantamount to discrimination in itself and that abandoning sentiment-based politics was vital for the progression of Nigerian democracy.[96][557] Despite intense opposition to a same religion ticket in June and July 2022 by civil/religious organizations and even within the APC, Tinubu picked Shettima—a fellow Muslim—anyway with an argument that qualifications should take precedence over religious affiliation.[554] The immediate backlash was strong as Anglican, Catholic, and Pentecostal leaders all condemned the same religion ticket while civil society groups like the Middle Belt Forum and some politicians also came out against the ticket.[558][559][560][100][561][562] Another mark against the same religion ticket was a leaked State Security Service memo that warned against same religion tickets using security grounds with the claim that such a ticket would "destabilise Nigeria and embolden attacks on Christian citizens" in addition to 'harbouring distrust by Christians against the presidency;' however, the Presidency denied the memo's veracity.[401][563] The appearance of people wearing liturgical garments of various Christian denominations at Shettima's nomination rally on 20 July led to further backlash as observers noted the group's lack of identification; the Christian Association of Nigeria publicly challenged the APC to name the supposed clergy, the Catholic Church said the vestment-donning "bishops" were fake, and activists derided the group as paid actors with the intent of faking Christian support for the APC ticket.[375][376][564][377] To compound the issues for Tinubu, prominent northern Christian APC politicians openly began to campaign against the ticket.[406] By later in 2022, an analyst would describe the Christian backlash to the same religion ticket and ensuing increased political activity as "arguably the most sustained spell of Christian religious mobilization" since the return of democracy in 1999.[565]

Another issue for candidates involving religion is centered on their reactions to and plans to combat religious violence. A few days before the major parties' primaries, a Christian university student named Deborah Samuel Yakubu was lynched by a mob in Sokoto after she was accused of blaspheming the Islamic prophet Muhammad. While Buhari, Osinbajo, civil society, and religious groups along with most serving national and state leaders publicly condemned the brutal murder, Tinubu remained silent and Obi did not release a statement but condemned the killing in an interview;[566][567][568][569][570] for Abubakar, he initially tweeted a condemnation before deleting the tweet and backtracking amid reports that he feared fundamentalist backlash.[571][572] These responses were derided as insensitive by critics and civil society groups as some Islamic groups justified the murder while others and more general sentiment called for punishment for the attackers.[573][574][575][576]

Social policy

The social position of women, people with disabilities, and other marginalized groups took a prominent position in policy debates before the election. A major point of contention in 2022 was the initial legislative rejection of constitutional amendments that mandating women seats in legislatures. While parliamentary leadership later partially rescinded the rejection, a wave of pro-equality protests swept the nation in March 2022 in a show of force from women's rights organizations.[577][578] In addition to the constitutional amendments, the National Assembly stalled a key gender equality bill for years despite nearly three-quarters of Nigerians promoting gender equality.[579][580] After the protests, groups have continued to push for legislation to combat inequality.[581] For the status of LGBT Nigerians, no major campaign has openly discussed the topic and seem to conform with current discriminatory laws.[582] People with disabilities also have pushed for fair participation in democratic processes amid discrimination with groups successfully getting wording in the new Electoral Act to guarantee accessibility during voting in line with INEC's goal of "the inclusion of PWDs in all aspects of the electoral process."[583]

In his manifesto, Tinubu promised to back legislation mandating 35% participation for women in all governmental positions; however, a similar vow had been made by Buhari in his previous campaigns. The Tinubu campaign also stated that its proposed social welfare programs would "give priority access to persons with disabilities, women and young people."[473]

General election

2023 Nigerian presidential election
Party Candidate Votes %
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
NNPP Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes N/A
Turnout

By geopolitical zone

Geopolitical zone Bola Tinubu
APC 		Peter Obi
LP 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
North Central[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
North East[p] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
North West[q] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South East[r] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South South[s] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
South West[t] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

By state

State Bola Tinubu
APC 		Peter Obi
LP 		Atiku Abubakar
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Abia State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Adamawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Akwa Ibom State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Anambra State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bauchi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bayelsa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Benue State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Borno State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Cross River State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Delta State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ebonyi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Edo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ekiti State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Enugu State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Federal Capital Territory TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Gombe State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Imo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jigawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kaduna State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kano State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Katsina State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kebbi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kogi State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kwara State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Lagos State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Nasarawa State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Niger State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ogun State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ondo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Osun State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Oyo State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Plateau State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Rivers State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Sokoto State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Taraba State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yobe State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Zamfara State TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. ^ On Election Day, Andy Uba and Emeka Okafor were officially listed as the APC gubernatorial and deputy gubernatorial nominees, respectively. However, in December 2021, a Federal High Court nullified the APC gubernatorial primary and declared Uba’s nomination illegal, null, and void.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m This candidate was recommended by the party screening committee.[108]
  3. ^ a b c d e This candidate was recommended by APC governors and the party National Working Committee.[80]
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j This candidate was not recommended by the party screening committee.[108]
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p This candidate was not recommended by APC governors and the party National Working Committee.[80]
  6. ^ a b Okowa is ethnically Ika, a group alternatively classified as either a distinct ethnic group or an Igbo subgroup; Okowa has steadfastly adhered to the latter interpretation, referring to himself as "Igbo." For his part, Wike is ethnically Ikwerre—another group classified as either a distinct ethnic group or an Igbo subgroup—however, Wike follows the former definition and has long denied being Igbo.[202]
  7. ^ a b c The party was renamed the "Zenith Progressives Alliance" on 8 June 2022.[329]
  8. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[41]
  9. ^ a b Although there was not a comprehensive list of aggrieved PDP politicians that withdrew from the Abubakar campaign, reporters noted attendants of the meeting where withdrawal was decided upon, namely: Mohammed Bello Adoke, Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, Donald Duke, Ayo Fayose, Jerry Gana, Bode George, Jonah David Jang, Seyi Makinde, Olusegun Mimiko, Chibudom Nwuche, and Dan Orbih along with Wike himself.[380]
  10. ^ In the APC, renewed criticism over the same religion ticket along with internal disputes about the Tinubu campaign council composition dominated the time period while in the PDP, the ongoing Wike dispute continued along with a new intraparty financial scandal.[450][448]
  11. ^ While originally based on a share of the revenue, bank documents revealed that the yearly commission was increased by ₦1.7 billion from 2019 to 2020 without an accompanying revenue increase; the pay rise was reportedly ordered by Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu—a longtime Tinubu ally—to fund Tinubu's presidential campaign.[466]
  12. ^ Hundreds of thousands of children in the Almajiranci system, mainly in the North, are counted as out-of-school children due to the often poor and/or limited form of education provided by the system.
  13. ^ Abubakar is ethnically Fulani, a distinct group to the larger Hausa people; however, for political purposes in Nigeria, the Hausa and Fulani are often grouped together under the term Hausa–Fulani.
  14. ^ Namely: the Abuja–Kaduna train attack which led to the killing and kidnapping of dozens of riders, the massacre of about 150 people in a series of bandit attacks in Plateau State, the ethnic-based and politically-motivated mass murder of over a dozen civilians by separatist militants in Anambra State, the fatal shooting of over 40 parishioners in Owo, and the ISWAP jailbreak of hundreds in the FCT signifying terrorist expansion into the North Central
  15. ^ Comprising the states of Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Plateau in addition to the Federal Capital Territory.
  16. ^ Comprising the states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe.
  17. ^ Comprising the states of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara.
  18. ^ Comprising the states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo.
  19. ^ Comprising the states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers.
  20. ^ Comprising the states of Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo.

References

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  4. ^ a b c d "2023: Obi picks LP presidential ticket". The Guardian. News Agency of Nigeria. Retrieved 30 May 2022.
  5. ^ a b c Jalal, Aliyu. "Kwankwaso Emerges NNPP Presidential Candidate". Daily Trust. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  6. ^ a b c d Erezi, Dennis. "Atiku dumps Wike, chooses Okowa as running mate for presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 June 2022.
  7. ^ a b c Aliyu, Abdullateef. "Running Mate: Like Tinubu, Peter Obi Picks Doyin Okupe As Placeholder". Daily Trust. Retrieved 17 June 2022.
  8. ^ a b c Erezi, Dennis. "Tinubu submits name of running mate to INEC". The Guardian. Retrieved 17 June 2022.
  9. ^ a b c Abdullahi, Idowu (8 July 2022). "Updated: Peter Obi picks Datti Baba-Ahmed as running mate". The Punch. Retrieved 8 July 2022.
  10. ^ a b c d Akinboyo, Temidayo. "Updated: Tinubu finally names Shettima as running mate". Premium Times. Retrieved 10 July 2022.
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