1452/1453 mystery eruption

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The 1452/1453 mystery eruption is one of two large, not definitively assigned, volcanic eruptions that took place in the 1450s with the second being the 1458 mystery eruption.[1][2] At present, there is evidence that assigns both to having taken place at Kuwae, Vanuatu[3] though there is also evidence that the latter may not have been Kuwae.[4]

In Antarctic and Greenland ice cores, a major eruption (or series of eruptions) is clearly evident as a sudden spike in sulfate concentration, showing that the release in form of particles was higher than any other eruption series since.[5] Initial analysis of the ice cores and comparison with climate records assigned the event to 1452–1453.[5] Some studies have assigned the largest eruption at about this time in the ice core series to 1458 but composition studies suggest it may not have been Kuwae.[4] The 1452–1453 eruption could also have been in a northern hemisphere location yet to be determined,[1] but platinium is widely distributed in sediments worldwide as happens with a very large eruption.[3] The link between the sulphur spike and the Kuwae caldera was first questioned in a 2007 study by Károly Németh, et al. proposing the Tofua caldera as an alternative source candidate.[6]

Both eruptions have now been shown to cause mutual volcanic winters, the period 1452–1453 correlating with tree ring and other historic records, and the period 1458–1464 also correlating with tree ring evidence.[2] The 1458 mystery eruption was first assigned to 1465 in earlier work[2] partially due to unusual atmospheric events during the 1465 wedding of Alfonso II of Naples.[7]

The volume of expelled matter in the two eruptions that is detected in the ice core record in both the northern and southern hemispheres is more than six times larger than that of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.[5]

Climatic consequences[edit]

The 1450s eruptions have been linked with the second pulse of the Little Ice Age, which had started two centuries earlier with the Samalas eruption[8] and other three unidentified eruptions.[9]

An often quoted study by Dr Kevin Pang of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory[10] drew on evidence found in tree rings, ice cores and in the historic records of civilizations in Europe and China. Oak panels of British portrait paintings had abnormally narrow rings in 1453–55.

In Sweden, grain tithes fell to zero as the crops failed. Bristlecone pines of the Western United States show frost damage in 1453. The growth of European and Chinese trees was stunted in 1453–57.

Mexican codices describe autumn frosts in 1453 that affected agriculture throughout central Mexico.[11]

According to the history of the Ming dynasty in China in the spring of 1453, "nonstop snow damaged wheat crops". Later that year, as the dust obscured the sunlight, "several feet of snow fell in six provinces; tens of thousands of people froze to death".

Early in 1454, "it snowed for 40 days south of the Yangtze River and countless died of cold and famine". Lakes and rivers were frozen, and the Yellow Sea was icebound out to 20 km (12 mi) from shore.

The eruption occurred just before the Fall of Constantinople, the last bastion of the once-mighty Byzantine Empire. The Ottoman Turks, led by Sultan Mehmed II, laid siege to the city on 5 April 1453 and conquered it on 29 May 1453. Pang found mention of the volcano's after-effects in chronicles of the city's last days. Historians noted that the city's gardens, that spring, produced very little. On the night of 22 May 1453, the moon, the symbol of Constantinople, rose in dark eclipse, fulfilling a prophecy of the city's demise. On 25 May 1453, a thunderstorm burst on the city: "It was impossible to stand up against the hail, and the rain came down in such torrents that whole streets were flooded". The next day, on 26 May 1453, the whole city was blotted out by a thick fog, a condition that is unknown in that part of the world in that month.

When the fog lifted that evening, "flames engulfed the dome of the Hagia Sophia, and lights, too, could be seen from the walls, glimmering in the distant countryside far behind the Turkish camp (to the west)", historians noted. Residents of the city thought the strange light was from reflection from a fire set by the Turkish attackers. Pang said, however, that the "fire" was an optical illusion by the reflection of intensely red twilight glow by clouds of volcanic ash high in the atmosphere. Many such false fire alarms were reported worldwide after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia.

While Pang may be inaccurate in saying "I conclude that Kuwae erupted in early 1453.... The residual volcanic cloud could have made the apocalyptic June 1456 apparition of the Comet Halley look 'red' with a 'golden' tail, as reported by contemporary astronomers" the events described could be due to the aftermath of volcanic eruptions, it is just not clear which ones.[1][2]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Plummer, Christopher T.; Curran, M. A. J.; van Ommen, Tas D.; Rasmussen, S.O.; Moy, A. D.; Vance, Tessa R.; Clausen, H. B.; Vinther, Bo M.; Mayewski, P. A. (2012-05-01). "An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the c. 1450s eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu". Climate of the Past Discussions. 8: 1567–1590. doi:10.5194/cpd-8-1567-2012.
  2. ^ a b c d Cole-Dai, Jihong; Ferris, David G.; Lanciki, Alyson L.; Savarino, Joël; Thiemens, Mark H.; McConnell, Joseph R. (2013-07-17). "Two likely stratospheric volcanic eruptions in the 1450s C.E. found in a bipolar, subannually dated 800 year ice core record". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118: 7459–7466. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50587.
  3. ^ a b Tankersley, Kenneth Barnett; Dunning, Nicholas P.; Owen, Lewis A.; Huff, Warren D.; Park, Ji Hoon; Kim, Changjoo; Lentz, David L.; Sparks-Stokes, Dominique (2019-07-28). "Positive Platinum anomalies at three late Holocene high magnitude volcanic events in Western Hemisphere sediments". Scientific Reports. 8: 11298. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-29741-8.
  4. ^ a b Hartman, Laura H.; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; Winski, Dominic A.; Cruz-Uribe, Alicia M.; Davies, Siwan M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Iverson, Nels A.; Aydin, Murat; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David G.; Fudge, T. J.; Osterberg, Erich C.; Hargreaves, Geoffrey M.; Yates, Martin G. (8 October 2019). "Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source". Scientific Reports. 9 (1): 14437. Bibcode:2019NatSR...914437H. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-50939-x. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 6783439. PMID 31595040.
  5. ^ a b c Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Self, Stephen; Witter, Jeffrey B.; J. P. Steffenson; Henrik Brink Clausen; Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen; Sigfus Johnsen; Paul A. Mayewski; Caspar Ammann (2006). "The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae eruption signal derived from multiple ice core records: Greatest volcanic sulfate event of the past 700 years" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research. 111 (D12107): 11. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11112107G. doi:10.1029/2005JD006710.
  6. ^ Nemeth, K; Cronin, SJ; White, JDL (2007). "Kuwae caldera and climate confusion". The Open Geology Journal. 1 (1): 7–11. Bibcode:2007OGJ.....1....7N. doi:10.2174/1874262900701010007.
  7. ^ Bauch, Martin. "The day the sun turned blue. A volcanic eruption in the early 1460s and its putative climatic impact – a globally perceived volcanic disaster in the Late Middle Ages?". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  8. ^ Lavigne, F.; Degeai, J.-P.; Komorowski, J.-C.; Guillet, S.; Robert, V.; Lahitte, P.; Oppenheimer, C.; Stoffel, M.; Vidal, C. M.; Surono; Pratomo, I. (2013-10-15). "Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (42): 16742–16747. Bibcode:2013PNAS..11016742L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1307520110. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 3801080. PMID 24082132.
  9. ^ Miller et al. 2012. "Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks" Geophysical Research Letters 39, January 31
  10. ^ "FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE". NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 6 December 1993. Retrieved 2 April 2022.
  11. ^ Therrell, Matthew; Stahle, David W.; Soto, Rodolfo Acuña (2004). "Aztec Drought and the "Curse of One Rabbit"". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 85 (9): 1263–1272. Bibcode:2004BAMS...85.1263T. doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-9-1263.

Further reading[edit]

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