History of the federal government of Ethiopia

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Emblem of Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, since 1995


Federalism in Ethiopia can best be explained by considering the ethnic and geographic diversity of modern-day Ethiopia, interpreted through the history of the nation’s reunification. Ethiopia contains over 80 ethnic groups of varying sizes, languages, religions and customs. According to the 2007 census, the top seven groups constitute to 83% of the population. Ethiopia is mainly a rural country, with a wide variation of topography that impacts the agricultural and economic activity.

Following the dissolution of the Derg in 1991, ending the Ethiopian Civil War, Ethiopia went under a transitional government lasting until 1995. The 1995 constitution was enacted by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which is based upon ethnic based federalism. The purpose was intended to alleviate ethnic tensions, seeking regional autonomy. Each ethnic territory has the right to secede, causing great controversy among Ethiopian nationalists and its diaspora fearing it could induce ethnic tensions and decentralization of the government.[1] Article 39, Section 1 states: "Every nation, nationality and people has an unconditional right to self-determination including the right to section."[2] Socioeconomic and political liberalization characterized Ethiopia under federalism with considerable economic growth more than 7% from the past decade, where the country registered the fastest GDP growth under Meles Zenawi's administration. During this period, Ethiopia was greatly affected by inter-ethnic clashes, and the escalation of political instability and lack of civil administration has shifted Ethiopia towards an authoritarian regime.[3] Currently, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration, Ethiopia is undergoing a civil war, the Tigray War, that started in 2020.

Prelude

An Ethiopian statehood was variously opposed from different factions since the 19th-century conquest by Emperor Menelik II, eventually ushering Marxist–Leninist ideological movements in Ethiopia at the end of the 1960s. At the beginning of the decade, nationality questions were aroused during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie culminating in an armed movement in Eritrea, and the subsequent Eritrean War of Independence in 1962. In 1974, a revolution was ignited by several classes as a response of the imperial government's failure to adapt public demand on the economy, which resulted in a downfall of Haile Selassie's government by military committee the Derg; Ethiopia then fell under a military dictatorship. The reversal of the previous imperial policy came to effect, and nationalization of land was codified in 1975. In 1976, the Derg declared its goals for establishing scientific socialism through a program called the "National Democratic Revolution Programme (NDRP)". The program also affirmed the equality of ethnic groups in Ethiopia, and self-determination through regional autonomy.

Early activities and policies

Following the downfall of the Derg by the rebel coalition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 1991, the EPRDF convened the July 1991 Peace and Democracy conference, bringing 25 political organizations. This conference approved the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), asserting to bring multi-party democracy, freedom of association and speech to Ethiopia. It also granted Eritrean secession from Ethiopia, and ethnic secession from territory. Following the conference, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) was established with an unelected legislative body known as the Council of Representatives (CoR). The CoR had 87 seats with 32 political organizations, with the EPRDF allocating 32 seats for itself, while the Oromo Liberation Front, a spearhead succorer of the EPRDF had 12 seats, and the rest with one to three seats. In 1992, the EPRDF was almost set up executive power; underwent consolidated administration based on 14 ethnolinguistic regions in Ethiopia. However, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRP) and the Amhara's All-Ethiopian Socialist Movement (MEISON) withdrew from the league on the basis of superfluous concession. Shortly, the OLF withdrew in the 1992 regional election, a controversial event where the EPRDF elected its allies as constituent regional parties. With assent, the Constituent Assembly, dominated by the EPRDF, approved the 1994 constitution with elements of charter recognizing self-determination, secession, democratic and human rights, and formation of nine regions.

Meanwhile, there was debate over the 'pragmatic and promise' order raised during the 1995 election, and some political parties boycotted the election due to their perceived fear of "open political space". In addition, the EPRDF used paradox in theory of the concurrency of Soviet hierarchical categorization of ethnic groups in terms of "nations, national groups and peoples'" and the 1994 constitution defined Joseph Stalin's concept of "nation". Article 20/5 states:

A group of people who have or share a large measure of common culture or similar customs, mutual intelligibility of language, belief in a common or related identities, a common psychological make-up, and who inhibit an identifiable, predominantly contiguous territory.

Indeed, the Soviet's "nations, nationalities and peoples'"—as a hierarchical organization constituting federalism—influenced the now implementing ethnic federalism in Ethiopia. Article 39, 1 section states: "Every nation, nationality and people has an unconditional right to self-determination including the right to section."[2]

Major conflicts

Ogaden insurgency

Main articles: Insurgency in Ogaden and Ethiopian–Somali conflict

Ethnic and tribal conflict within the Somali Region occurred shortly after its formation in 1992. In May 1991, a pan-Islamist Al-Ittihad al-Islam (Islamic Unity) was established with the aim of consolidating Somalis with empire in case of Ogaden region. Al-Ittihad was accused by the government of orchestrating bombing attacks between 1996 and 1997. Following this, the Ethiopian military crossed southern Somalia and successfully neutralized the wing. The Ogaden National Liberation Front began operating in the region following a naming dispute what they called it "Ogaadeenia", established in the Gulf state in March 1984.[4] After the Ogaden War and subsequent Ethiopian Somalia War terminated in the Djibouti agreement in 1988, the Derg-sponsored Western Somali Liberation Front (WSLF) mediated the stalemate intermittently. Since 1991, OLF rendered to the dominant political party, and the largest within interim Somali regional assembly after the December 1992 elections. In the assembly held in the same year, controversial issues were raised including a failed proposition of Dire Dawa to be the capital of the region.

The ONLF preferred Gode despite non-Ogaden clans opposing the move, who worked for Jijiga to make a new capital. In 1994, Somali's capital transferred to Jijiga due to security issues between the ONLF and EPRDF. The first Somali Region president was Abdullahi Mohammed Sa'adi from the ONLF. In July 1993, the government sacked the new president over alleged fund misuse, eventually creating setback to EPRDF–ONLF relations, and instability in the region. As of 2002, eight presidents have lost their positions. In May 1994, ONLF held secessionist referendum despite EPRDF determined declining the referendum as "illegal resolutions". Similarly, numerous pro-rebel insurgency organizations thrived such as Democratic Unity Party, the Ethiopian Somali Democratic Movement, and the Democratic Action.

ONLF rebels in 2006

The ONLF insurgency was officially launched on 22 February 1994 after government troops killed 81 people in an ONLF rally in the town of Wardheer (Werder).[5][2] In response, ONLF rebels killed two and four government soldier in Har Weyne on 27 April 2004 and 8 April 2004 respectively. On 16 June 2004, the government killed ten civilians in a truck travelling between Qabridaharre (Kebri Dahar) and Wardheer. On 1 October, the government clashed with ONLF rebels in the Ogaden region, which left 17 government soldiers dead. Sporadic government raids and rebel insurgency were ensued between 2004 and 2010, when representatives of the Ethiopian government and the ONLF faction signed peace agreement on 13 October 2010. Again the government reinstated the campaign against ONLF on 23–25 November 2010, and continued for more than couple years. Negotiations were attempted in first round in Nairobi on 6–7 September 2012, with the delegation of government's Defense Minister Siraj Fegessa and ONLF's Admiral Mohamed Omar Osman in that October. The process continued on 25 December in Addis Ababa inviting ONLF's Abdinur Abdulaye Farah. On 26 January 2014, two negotiators from splinter of ONLF, Painito Bera Ng'ang'ai and James Ngaparini, were kidnapped by Kenyan police before turning to the Ethiopian government.[6]

During the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the ONLF ultimately declared ceasefire on 12 August 2018, after a call by Abiy.[7] On 22 October 2018, Eritrea hosted the final peace treaty of Ethiopia government and ONLF, with respect leaders from Foreign Affairs Minister Workneh Gebeyehu and Admiral Mohammed Omar Osman.[6]

Oromo Liberation Front and Oromo Liberation Army

Main articles: Oromo conflict and Oromo conflict (2021)
Flag of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)

The Oromo Liberation Front insurgency traces back with its founding in 1973 in response to the perceived deficient rule of Haile Selassie, and the Derg mass arrests in particular area of Galamso, Badessa, Mechara, Bike, Balbaleti. On the other hand, the OLF established with an objective of self-determination of Oromo people: "realization of the national self-determination of the Oromo people" and "believes the Oromo people are still being denied their fundamental rights by Ethiopian colonialism" according to their website.[8]

During the struggle against the Derg military government, the OLF was closely involved in an alliance with spearhead political groups like the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF), both of whom formed a coalition party named the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front in 1988. In June 1992, the OLF withdrew from the EPRDF coalition as a result of fear of Tigrayan hegemony, triggering Oromo-led insurgency which left thousands deported to Kenya and Somalia. The relations of Eritrea and Ethiopia worsened by 1993, by which Ethiopia accused Eritrea for supplying arms to OLF insurgents. In May and June of that year, the OLF sent troops backed by tanks to Somalia. Similarly, the Al-Ittihad al-Islam took raids in the border of southern Ethiopia, and the government failed to access the Ethio-Kenyan border where OLF insurgents believed to operate there.[9] In 1995, the government arrested 280 members of the OLF accused of rebellion in the town of Zeway.[10]

Armed OLF fighters retreating to Kenya, 3 February 2006

After its chairman Galassa Dilbo resigned in 2003, OLF members met with Eritrea in Asmara in December 2004, Dawud Ibsa Ayana succeeded the chairman position. Between 2001 and 2007, the OLF was involved in a territorial stalemate, where the situation fell in the foundation of Ethiopian–Eritrean border conflict.[11] In the Bergen meeting, several OLF committee members reportedly called for participation in 2005 general election, regarding the group's isolation a big issue ravaging OLF leaderless.[12] On 15 September 2006, veteran Ethiopian Army commanders Brigadier General Hailu Gonfa and Gemechu Ayana joined OLF after serving for TPLF.

In January 2005, sixteen Eritrean political parties met in Khartoum, Sudan, to establish the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) with Ethiopian support. In May 2006, four opposition parties turned to insurgency. They formed the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD) aiming in peaceful nonviolent struggle against the government, despite pledged rebellion against any authority. Main members of the coalition had their headquarters in Asmara, Eritrea.[13]

In August 2011, Bekele Gerba, an Oromo activist was detained by the government in alleged connection with the OLF, along with Olbana Lelisa. Agence France-Presse amplified the government statement quoting "[t]hese people were arrested because the police had found evidence that had linked them with clandestine activities carried out by the OLF". Paris-based newspaper the Sudan Tribune released a statement that the two people were convicted to the Ethiopian Federal Higher Court for having links to the OLF by recruiting students to the organization and using membership. In 2010, the UN Committee Against Torture accused the government of alleged torturing supporters of insurgent groups like the OLF. On 27 June 2014, the OLF announced formation of two organizations in their websites also known as the "OLF National Council" and the "OLF Transitional Authority", and agreed to combine military and leadership structure.[14]

A successful peace process was held in Asmara during Abiy Ahmed's tenure on 7 August 2018, signing the Reconciliation Agreement. It was signed between the President of the Oromia Region Lemma Megersa with his OLF counterpart Dawud Ibsa Ayana.[15] According to Eritrean information minister Yemane Gebremeskel, the agreement stated "The OLF will conduct its political activities in Ethiopia through peaceful means".[16] Meanwhile, its wing, the Oromo Liberation Army, failed to reach the peace agreement, seeing "no room for a peaceful political resolution", and continued a separated movement aside the OLF.

On 2 November 2020, 54 people (mostly Amhara women, children and elderly people) were killed in the village of Gawa Qanqa by attackers declaring themselves under the OLA, after the Ethiopian National Defense Force withdrew from the area without explanation. The OLA denied any responsibility.[17][18] The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reported that 210 people were killed in Oromia Region's Gida–Kirimu on 18 August 2021. State affiliated independent commission said that the witness identified gunmen related to the OLA after security force withdrew the area.[19]

The rebel group began actively operating in the Western Oromia since the Tigray War. Amnesty International reported that the OLA repeatedly committed human rights abuse targeted mostly Amhara minorities using massacre, extrajudicial killings of captives and sexual violence targeting women and girls.[20] On 1 May 2021, Ethiopia formally approved for the TPLF and the OLA to be designated terrorist organizations.[21] On 5 November 2021, the OLA, together with eight rebel political organizations, formed the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Cofederalist Forces, in order to "dismantle Abiy's government by force or by negotiation, and then form a transitional authority".[22][23]

Afar–Somali clashes

Main article: Afar–Somali clashes

The Afar–Somali clashes began in 2014 when ethnic Somalis claimed regions including the Awash River and highway and railway conjunctions between Addis Ababa and Djibouti, which provided significant resources to them.[24] Another issue was disputed special kebeles inhabited by Somali's Issa clan, such as Adaytu in the Mille woreda, Undufo in the Gewane woreda, and Gedamaytu in the Amibara woreda. In 2014, the federal government delimited the boundary between the two regions, resulting in the loss of three villages in the Somali Region to the Afar Region.

Further violence escalated on 27 October 2020, killing 27 people according to the Ethiopian government.[25] On 27 July 2021, the Somali Region government said Afar militias looted the town of Gedamaytu, also known as Gabraiisa with undisclosed casualties.[26] An estimated 300 Somalis were killed in the clash that began on 24 July where their bodies were reportedly scattered in the roads of Garbe Isse.[27]

Oromo–Somali clashes

Main article: Oromo–Somali clashes

The Oromo–Somali clashes escalated after the failed resolution of demarcating the boundary between Oromia and Somali regions since decades. In 2004, a referendum was held with more than 420 kebeles being transferred to the Oromia Region, leaving the Somali minorities displaced. The Jarso population in Somali Region also voted to join Oromia.[28]

According to the 10th round (March–April) of the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)1, at least 10,737,642 people where displaced as of mid-2018, with majority displacement occurred in the clash of Oromia and Somali.[29]

Under Abiy Ahmed

Main article: Ethiopian civil conflict (2018–present)
Situation of Ethiopian civil conflict as of January 2022

In 2018 TPLF’s Hailemariam, after 3 years of growing discontent and clashes, was replaced by Abiy Ahmed, the first Oromo leader in Ethiopia, traditionally Amhara dominated in earlier times.[30] Initially, Abiy an elected member of the Ethiopian parliament, and a member of the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), one of the then four coalition parties of the EPRDF, introduced more reforms and liberalisation, sidelining the TPLF, disbanding the EPRDF in 2019 and forming his own party, the Prosperity Party.[31] He ended the 20-year post-war territorial stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea for which he won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.[32] In June 2020, Abiy, in concert with the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), decided to postpone scheduled parliamentary elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[33][34][35] This move prompted criticism, especially from the opposition and raised questions about the delay's constitutional legitimacy.

In November 2020, simmering ethnic and political tensions, as well as attacks on the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Northern Command, exploded into the ongoing Tigray War between the combined forces of the ENDF and the Eritrean Army against forces loyal to the TPLF, an ethnic party which dominated the erstwhile ruling EPRDF coalition during a nearly thirty-year period marked by rapid development alongside increasing interethnic tension, as well as those loyal to significant allied groups such as the Oromo Liberation Army, now currently in loose alignment with TPLF.[36]

This conflict which displaced up to 2 million people, still continues unabated, and has spread into Amhara and Afar regions, as of September 2022, with repeated breakdowns of ceasefires, despite support for negotiations from the US and Kenyan governments. Both sides have large heavily armed troop emplacements in close proximity, trade and food blockades still persist, creating widespread hunger, estimated to affect 4.8 million people, mainly Tigrayan.[37][38]

Economy

Further information: Economy of Ethiopia
Historical GDP per capita growth from 1950 to 2018

Ethiopia has achieved economic growth more than 7% in the past decade. During Meles Zenawi's administration, Ethiopia boosted the fastest economic growth in Africa in terms of GDP with double-digit economic growth for his last 9 years, resuming 7 years after his death where his party, the TPLF, continued the same policy. The raise of agricultural output led 11% economic growth for the 2011–12 fiscal year that ended in June, though inflation elevated by 20% in July.[citation needed]

Commercial Bank of Ethiopia in 2007

In addition, the country maintained loans from foreign countries. Over the past years alone, the USAID lent $675 million and the Britain's Department for International Development (DfID) lent an average of £331m a year until 2015.[39] The Ethiopian economy in manufacturing grew from 4% (2010) to 6% (2018), which is still at a reduction level as a result of trade deficiency. Foreign currency may be acquired to strengthen foreign direct investment in the labor-intensive manufacturing industries and industrial zones. Ethiopia actively invested in China, Turkey and India in primary sectors including textiles, leather-making, and shoe-making with cheap labor. The accessibility with rural areas often met low productivity and has yet comparative advantage. Ethiopia has a high debt with 60% of its 2018 GDP, half of its external debt. The IMF warned of the high risk of debt remaining stable. Acquisition of foreign currency dominated in the future includes (1) 22 domestic industrial zones that is currently underdeveloping, (2) gas development promoted by China in northeastern Ogaden and completion of gas pipelines linking to Djibouti, (3) transmittance from around three million Ethiopian diaspora, (4) electricity exports to Kenya, by which the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is expected to deliver adequate to neighboring countries and (5) privatization of state-owned enterprises such as Ethio telecom and Ethiopian Airlines.[40]

In September 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the launch of Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HERA), a program designated to advance the GTP with economic activity shifts from agriculture to industry. HERA also expected to suspend the country's low middle-income rate to 2030, after originally aimed to 2025 under GTP. Also, the government announced the shortage of foreign currency, and vows to conduct reforms within three years targeting increased productivity. Contrary, the designation is yet unclear whether further measure should be taken by HERA, or the integration of GTP in the third phase in HERA.

See also

References

  1. ^ Habtu, Alem (2005). "Multiethnic Federalism in Ethiopia: A Study of the Secession Clause in the Constitution". Publius. 35 (2): 313–335. doi:10.1093/publius/pji016. ISSN 0048-5950. JSTOR 4624714.
  2. ^ a b c Abdullahi, Ahmednasir M. (1998). "Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution On Secession and Self-determination: A Panacea to the Nationality Question in Africa?". Verfassung und Recht in Übersee / Law and Politics in Africa, Asia and Latin America. 31 (4): 440–455. doi:10.5771/0506-7286-1998-4-440. ISSN 0506-7286. JSTOR 43110295. S2CID 127578424.
  3. ^ Cheeseman, Nic. "The Conflict in Ethiopia Calls Into Question Authoritarian Aid". Carnegie Europe. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  4. ^ Abdullahi, Abdi M. (2007). "The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF): The Dilemma of Its Struggle in Ethiopia". Review of African Political Economy. 34 (113): 556–562. ISSN 0305-6244. JSTOR 20406430.
  5. ^ "Ethiopia: the conflict in focus | Conciliation Resources". www.c-r.org. Retrieved 2022-05-16.
  6. ^ a b "68. Ethiopia/Ogaden (1948–present)". uca.edu. Retrieved 2022-05-16.
  7. ^ AfricaNews (2018-08-12). "Ethiopia: ONLF declares a unilateral ceasefire". Africanews. Retrieved 2022-05-16.
  8. ^ Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Refworld | Ethiopia: The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), including origin, mandate, leadership, structure, legal status, and membership; treatment of members and supporters by authorities (2014–2015)". Refworld. Retrieved 2022-05-16.
  9. ^ Watch (Organization), Human Rights; Staff, Human Rights Watch (1999). World Report 2000. Human Rights Watch. ISBN 978-1-56432-238-8.
  10. ^ Minahan, James (2002-05-30). Encyclopedia of the Stateless Nations: Ethnic and National Groups Around the World A-Z [4 Volumes]. ABC-CLIO. p. 1472. ISBN 978-0-313-07696-1.
  11. ^ Woldemariam, Michael (2018-02-15). Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa: Rebellion and its Discontents. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-108-42325-0.
  12. ^ Markakis, John (2011). Ethiopia: The Last Two Frontiers. Boydell & Brewer Ltd. p. 284. ISBN 978-1-84701-033-9.
  13. ^ Plaut, Martin (2006). "Ethiopia's Oromo Liberation Front". Review of African Political Economy. 33 (109): 587–593. ISSN 0305-6244. JSTOR 4007062.
  14. ^ Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Refworld | Ethiopia: The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), including origin, mandate, leadership, structure, legal status, and membership; treatment of members and supporters by authorities (2014–2015)". Refworld. Retrieved 2022-05-21.
  15. ^ "UNPO: Oromo: OLF and Ethiopian Government Sign Peace Agreement in Eritrean Capital". unpo.org. Retrieved 2022-05-21.
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  17. ^ "Armed group attacked village killing ethnic Amharas, destroying homes". Amnesty International. 2020-11-02. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  18. ^ Ababa, Staff and agencies in Addis (2020-11-02). "At least 54 killed in Ethiopia massacre, says Amnesty". the Guardian. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  19. ^ "More Than 210 Killed in Violence in Western Ethiopia". VOA. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  20. ^ "Ethiopia: Sweeping emergency powers and alarming rise in online hate speech as Tigray conflict escalates". Amnesty International. 2021-11-05. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  21. ^ "Ethiopia to designate TPLF, OLF-Shene as 'terror' groups". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  22. ^ "Nine anti-gov't groups team up as Ethiopia recalls ex-soldiers". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  23. ^ "Alliance of Ethiopian factions puts government at risk of overthrow". the Guardian. 2021-11-05. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  24. ^ "Afar-Somali Border Conflict". Ethiopia Peace Observatory. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  25. ^ "Clashes between Ethiopian states kill 27 amid border dispute". Reuters. 2020-10-29. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  26. ^ "Ethiopia: Somali region says hundreds 'massacred' by Afar militia". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  27. ^ "Ethiopia: Is the Afar-Somali clash a result of government conspiracy?". The Africa Report.com. 2021-08-19. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
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  31. ^ "Why Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party could be bad news for Ethiopia".
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  33. ^ "Ethiopia proposes holding postponed vote in May or June 2021: FANA". Reuters. 30 October 2020.
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  35. ^ "Ethiopia postpones elections again to 21 June". 20 May 2021.
  36. ^ "Tigray, Other Groups Form Alliance Against Ethiopian Leader".
  37. ^ "Ethiopia's Tigray war: Fresh fighting shatters humanitarian truce". BBC News. 24 August 2022.
  38. ^ "Ethiopia civil war: Why fighting has resumed in Tigray and Amhara". BBC News. September 2022.
  39. ^ "Ethiopia's renaissance under Meles Zenawi tainted by authoritarianism | Mark Tran". the Guardian. 2012-08-21. Retrieved 2022-05-22.
  40. ^ "How Prime Minister Abiy Envisions "New Ethiopia"" (PDF). Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute Monthly Report. 22 May 2022.
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